Umpqua National Forest Intel and Fire Weather Outlook
Monday, August 17, 2026 9:29 AM
Duty Officers
Forest Duty Officer
Jason Amis
Dispatch Duty Officer
Kaleigh Johnson
North Zone Duty Officer
Brian Smith
South Zone Duty Officer
Ken Powell
Staffing Until Time
North Zone - Staffing Until
South Zone - Staffing Until
Current Conditions
Cottage Grove District
Updated: Aug 17, 8:25 AM
Fire Restrictions
Preparedness
National
5
NW
5
Local
3
Staffing
3
Fire Weather
ERC #
30
ERC %
82%
BI #
19
BI %
78%
10-hr FM
11%
1000-hr FM
16%
North Umpqua District
Updated: Aug 17, 8:25 AM
Fire Restrictions
Preparedness
National
5
NW
5
Local
3
Staffing
3
Fire Weather
ERC #
33
ERC %
87%
BI #
18
BI %
86%
10-hr FM
12%
1000-hr FM
15%
Diamond Lake District
Updated: Aug 17, 8:25 AM
Fire Restrictions
Preparedness
National
5
NW
5
Local
3
Staffing
3
Fire Weather
ERC #
31
ERC %
86%
BI #
18
BI %
77%
10-hr FM
13%
1000-hr FM
15%
Tiller District
Updated: Aug 17, 8:25 AM
Fire Restrictions
Preparedness
National
5
NW
5
Local
3
Staffing
3
Fire Weather
ERC #
64
ERC %
84%
BI #
32
BI %
70%
10-hr FM
13%
1000-hr FM
14%
Fire Weather Indicators
Last Day With Lightning
2026-08-14
Red Flag Warning
NO
ERC Trend
Rising
Weather Discussion
...Mostly dry conditions are expected through mid week
with typical afternoon breezes/humidity and temperatures near to
slightly above normal. Expect nightly coastal marine stratus, but
with poor to moderate RH recovery over the ridges. There`s a low
chance of thunderstorms (5-10% chance) this afternoon/evening
near/north of Crater Lake in Cascades. Thunder chances drop to
0-5% Tue-Thu, then an offshore trough could bring lightning risk
Friday/Saturday (although that possibility is trending down).
Early projections suggest most activity to the north.
7-Day ERC & Staffing Outlook
| Metric | Today Aug 17 | Tue Aug 18 | Wed Aug 19 | Thu Aug 20 | Fri Aug 21 | Sat Aug 22 | Sun Aug 23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg ERC (all stations) | 40 | 42 | 42 | 45 | 40 | 37 | 40 |
| Decision Points | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Projected Staffing Level | SL 2 | SL 3 | SL 3 | SL 3 | SL 2 | SL 2 | SL 2 |
ERC-based Predicted Staffing Level Last updated: Aug 17, 2026 at 8:25 AM GMT-0700.
ERC & Fuel Moisture - Trend
Energy Release Component (ERC)
Fuel Moisture (10-hr solid · 1000-hr dashed)
Cottage Grove District
North Umpqua District
Diamond Lake District
Tiller District
Fire Weather Matrices
Loading fire weather matrices…
Fire Weather Forecast
NWS 4-day forecast graphics plus Hot-Dry-Windy
CPC 6–10 Day Outlook
Drought Monitor
Significant Fire Potential
