Southwest Coordination Center (SWCC)

SUMMARY

"

Fire Weather Forecast
- *** High Risk for Gusty Winds/Low RH Southern parts of AZ-NM Sat-Sun *** As low pressure slowly departs gradually warming temperatures returned for the rest of the work week. Another low pressure system approaches this weekend. An increase in winds ahead of this system has prompted additional ""High Risk"" for a combination of strong winds/Low RH issuances for areas where fuels remain critical. Afterwards significant cooling and moistening expected especially across northern areas as this low will drop down further south than the previous one. Widespread light precipitation is expected aver northern areas by the end of this weekend into early next week.
  - HIGH RISK TRIGGER(S) issued today by SWCC Predictive Services for Windy-Dry-Unstable Atmosphere in PSA(s) 5; 6N; 8;
Red Flag Warning(s)/Watches/Advisories
- RED FLAG WARNING(S)/Watches/Advisories issued today (or over the next couple days) in the Southwest Area for ; North/Northeast ARIZONA ; Central/Southwest ARIZONA; Southeast ARIZONA; Central/Northern NEW MEXICO; Southwest NEW MEXICO - Southeast NEW MEXICO.
High Risk Triggers(s)
- HIGH RISK TRIGGER(S) issued today for a Windy-Dry-Unstable atmosphere in PSA(s) 5; 6N; 8; (SW Predictive Services)
Lightning / Precipitation
- Lightning occurred in Southern AZ - Southern NM - over the past 24-hours.
- No precipitation received over the past 24-48 hours in the Southwest Area.
Drought
- Arizona: Drought conditions currently trending Abnormally Dry (100%) - Moderate (99.34%) - Severe (82.18%) - Extreme (60.75%)Exceptional (6.14%)..
- New Mexico: Drought conditions currently trending Abnormally Dry (96.21%) - Moderate (86.55%) - Severe (73.69%) - Extreme (48.2%) - Exceptional (7.51%). .
Fuel Moisture
Fire Behavior Advisories
- Arizona: No advisories at this time.
- New Mexico: No advisories at this time.
RAWS / WIMS Fire Danger Forecast
Forecasted Burn Period
Energy Release Component (ERC)
Fire Restrictions
- Arizona: 13 units with Stage 2 Fire Restrictions in place.
- New Mexico: 4 units with Stage 2 Fire Restrictions in place.

"

Updated: 5/17/2025-09:09

PREPAREDNESS LEVEL

Southwest	3	05/14/25
National	2	05/14/25

FIRE DANGER OUTLOOK: NORTHERN AZ: Low to Moderate SOUTHERN AZ: Moderate NORTHERN NM: Low SOUTHERN NM: Moderate FIRE POTENTIAL OUTLOOK: HIGH RISK TRIGGER(S) issued today for a Windy-Dry-Unstable atmosphere in PSA(s) 5; 6N; 8; . (SWCC Predictive Services) MOBILIZATION OUTLOOK: Primarily in the ML-1 to ML-2 range. (SWCC Intelligence Operations)
Updated: 5/17/2025-09:09

NOTES: This product is produced Mon-Thur while in PL-3.

1. FIRE WEATHER

A. SWCC PREDICTIVE SERVICES

FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION:

"*** High Risk for Gusty Winds/Low RH Southern parts of AZ-NM Sat-Sun *** As low pressure slowly departs gradually warming temperatures returned for the rest of the work week. Another low pressure system approaches this weekend. An increase in winds ahead of this system has prompted additional ""High Risk"" for a combination of strong winds/Low RH issuances for areas where fuels remain critical. Afterwards significant cooling and moistening expected especially across northern areas as this low will drop down further south than the previous one. Widespread light precipitation is expected aver northern areas by the end of this weekend into early next week.

HIGH RISK TRIGGER(S) issued today by SWCC Predictive Services for Windy-Dry-Unstable Atmosphere in PSA(s) 5; 6N; 8;

"

0

SWCC Predictive Services

Updated: 5/17/2025-09:01

DAILY FIRE POTENTIAL

HIGH RISK TRIGGER(S) issued today for a Windy-Dry-Unstable atmosphere in PSA(s) 5; 6N; 8; .

HIGH RISK TRIGGER(S) issued today by SWCC Predictive Services for Windy-Dry-Unstable Atmosphere in PSA(s) 5; 6N; 8;

SWCC Predictive Services

Updated: 5/17/2025-09:01

SW 7-Day Prediction Maps

SWCC Predictive Service's "Daily Fire Weather Discussion and Fuels Potential" provided via the SWCC Predictive Service's 7-Day Fire Potential Outlook.

B. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

ARIZONA	FIRE WEATHER / WARNINGS / WATCHES / ADVISORIES
Las Vegas	Strong winds are expected across much of the region today with afternoon gusts in the 35-55 mph range. Min RH will improve slightly from Friday but bottom out in the 15-25 percent range. A few light showers are expected acorss the Southern Great Basin in the afternoon and evening. Cooler and breezy conditions will persist through Monday before a warming trend commences as high pressure builds in..
Flagstaff	RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM MST /NOON MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MST /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA. RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT ON SUNDAY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MST DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY. Today and Sunday.Dry today with minimum RH values mostly below 15%. Southwest winds increase to 15-25 mph gusting 30- 40 mph this afternoon and will persist through the overnight hours along the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains. A Red Flag Warning is in effect today for the Little Colorado River Valley and White Mountains. Breezy west-southwest winds continue Sunday strongest in eastern Arizona and a Red Flag Warning is in effect for the Little Colorado River Valley in Apache County. Elsewhere RH will trend upward Sunday along with a chance of showers/thunderstorms over the northern third of the state. Monday through Wednesday...Cooler Monday with a chance of showers mainly in northeast Arizona. West-northwest winds 15-25 mph with near-critical fire weather in eastern Arizona. Lighter winds drier conditions and turning much warmer Tuesday and Wednesday..
Phoenix	ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS ARIZONA. Wind speeds will increase substantially beginning this afternoon with gusts 25-35 mph becoming common. For the eastern districts into portions of southwest Arizona the combination of the gusty winds and humidity values falling into a 10-15% range will yield an elevated fire danger. While wind speeds will only be slightly weaker Sunday humidity values only falling into a 20-25% range will preclude a greater threat. Correspondingly poor to fair overnight recovery of 20-50% will improve closer to a 40-60% range Sunday..
Tucson	RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM MST SUNDAY. FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. High temperatures will be near normal today with typical breezes for much of southeast Arizona with breezy conditions persisting across Cochise Graham and Greenlee counties where 20-foot wind speeds will be around 15 mph and gusts up to 25-30 mph during the mid/late afternoon hours bringing near critical fire weather conditions. Sunday winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts of 30 to 45 mph are expected with a Red Flag Warning in effect from 10 AM to 8 PM on Sunday. Monday is now looking to be the windiest of the period across the Gila Valley of Graham Greenlee and far eastern Pinal counties with winds 20 to 30 mph and gusts around 40 mph. An increase in relative humidity is expected but still remain close to critical fire weather condiitons so a Fire Weather Watch has been issued from 10 AM to 8 PM Monday. Temperatures will be 2 to 4 degrees below normal Sunday lowering to 9 to 12 degrees below normal next Monday warming to well above normal levels by the middle of next week..

NEW MEXICO
Albuquerque	RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT TODAY FROM NOON UNTIL 7 PM MDT FOR THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND THE SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS DUE TO STRONG WINDS LOW HUMIDITY AND HIGH FIRE DANGER. RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY MORNING UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WEST CENTRAL BASIN AND RANGE SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS AND CENTRAL HIGHLANDS DUE TO STRONG WINDS LOW HUMIDITY AND HIGH FIRE DANGER. Southwest winds combined with several hours of single digit relative humidity will increase fire danger today in south-central New Mexico. Winds further increase on Sunday resulting in an expansion of critical fire weather conditions. The strongest gusts are likely in areas along and just east of the central mountain chain where gusts of 40 to 55 mph will be favored. Precipitation spreads in from the northwest on Sunday becoming more widespread on Monday. That being said dry conditions will remain across southern areas on Monday where there is the potential for another afternoon of critical fire weather conditions. Temperatures warm and winds decrease mid to late week. Widespread critical fire weather conditions are unlikely Tuesday through next Saturday..
El Paso	RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING. RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT SUNDAY. FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. Increasing southwest flow this afternoon combined with very dry air will create critical fire danger for the region. Southwest winds 15 to 25 mph today with min RH 5-10%. Wind speeds reach Red Flag thresholds for LNF/Sacramento Mtns this afternoon but will stay just below criteria for GNF and western NM. RH recovery will be very poor tonight with continued southwest flow. Wind speeds increase Sunday and Monday warranting Red Flags area wide. Sustained speeds of 20 to 30 mph with peak afternoon gusts around 45 mph. RH will be slightly higher Monday but still reach critical thresholds midday. No precipitation is expected this week through Memorial Day weekend..

WEST TEXAS
Midland	FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR 20 FOOT WINDS OF 20 MPH OR GREATER RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 15 PERCENT OR LESS AND VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS. With well above normal temperatures and critical(<15%) RHs expected fuels will continue to dry over the next few days. Winds also increase mainly across southeast New Mexico and the Guadalupe Mountains. Winds carry over into Sunday and with drier fuels and more favorable fire weather conditions a Fire Weather Watch will be in effect. Monday and Tuesday see continued low RHs with poor recoveries each night allowing fuels to further cure..

	Updated: 5/17/2025-09:13

WARNINGS/WATCHES/ADVISORY DATA PROVIDED BY: National Weather Service
Southwest Map | Arizona | New Mexico
FW Zone Maps: Arizona | New Mexico

SOUTHWEST OFFICES
LAS VEGAS

Website \| Forecast
FLAGSTAFF

Website \| Forecast
PHOENIX

Website \| Forecast
TUCSON

Website \| Forecast
ALBUQUERQUE

Website \| Forecast
EL PASO

Website \| Forecast
AMARILLO

Website \| Forecast
LUBBOCK

Website \| Forecast
MIDLAND

Website \| Forecast

C. LIGHTNING & PRECIPITATION

Map of lightning strikes within the last 24 hours

ARIZONA			NEW MEXICO
PSA	LIGHTNING **	PRECIPITATION **	PSA	LIGHTNING **	PRECIPITATION **
1	None	.	7	None	.
2	None	.	8		.
3	None	.	9	None	.
4	None	.	10	None	.
5	None	.	11	None	.
6N	Light	.	12	None	.
6S	None	.	13	None	.
			14N	None	.

					Updated: 5/17/2025-09:13

Lightning Map provided by LightningMaps.org CC BY-SA 4.0 / Lightning data by Blitzortung.org and contributors. Coverage is from yesterday at 1200 UTC - today at 1200 UTC
Precipitation Map is provided by pivotalweather with data from the NWS and covers from 1200 UTC the preceding day to 1200 UTC the date of publication. Data are averages for each PSA and provided by the MesoWest (Univ. of Utah) website and covers the past 24-48 hour period.

2. DROUGHT

A. BY STATE

ARIZONA
	CURRENT (01/00)	ONE WEEK AGO	ONE YEAR AGO	TRENDING PAST WEEK **
Abnormally Dry	100%	100%	74.21%	NC
Moderate	99.34%	99.34%	25.31%	NC
Severe	82.18%	82.83%	3.15%	RAS
Extreme	60.75%	63.52%	0%	RAS
Exceptional	6.14%	6.51%	0%	RAS


NEW MEXICO
	CURRENT (01/03)	ONE WEEK AGO	ONE YEAR AGO	TRENDING PAST WEEK **
Abnormally Dry	96.21%	98.73%	97.51%	RAS
Moderate	86.55%	88.37%	74.17%	RAS
Severe	73.69%	75.51%	35.67%	RAS
Extreme	48.2%	49.34%	13.42%	RAS
Exceptional	7.51%	4.23%	1.53%	IAS

"** NC = No Change
IAS = Increased Area Size
RAS = Reduced Area Size"				Updated: 5/17/2025-09:13

Arizona Drought Map

New Mexico Drought Map

National / State Drought Maps are updated once per week.
The table above indicates the percentage of the respective States current drought status compared to one-year ago.
Drought data are provided via the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska - Lincoln.

3. FUEL MOISTURE

A. DEAD FUEL MOISTURE

ARIZONA
100-HR TLFM	Dead Fuel Moisture by %
Northern	MOIST (10.17)
Southern	DRY (7.67)

1000-HR TLFM
Northern	MOIST (13.66)
Southern	DRY (9.4)

NEW MEXICO
100-HR TLFM	Dead Fuel Moisture by %
Northern	MOIST (10.49)
Southern	DRY (8.77)

1000-HR TLFM
Northern	MOIST (14.46)
Southern	MOIST (11.27)

	Updated: 2025-May-17 08:52

Arizona

New Mexico

Dead Fuel Moisture data are acquired daily via the National Weather Information System (WIMS) and the.
There are five categories for which the fuels are determined to be within:
Wet >=15%; Moist = 8.1% - 15%; Dry - 5.1% - 8.0%; Very Dry = 3.1% - 5.0%; Extremely Dry <=3.0%.

Live Fuel Moisture data are acquired via the National Fuel Moisture Database (NFMD).

C. FUELS AND FIRE BEHAVIOR ADVISORIES

Arizona: No advisories at this time.
New Mexico: No advisories at this time.

Updated: 05/17/2025-08:58

Fuels and Fire Behavior Advisories are provide by the National Predictive Services webpage.

4. FIRE DANGER

A. Forecasted Burn Period

ARIZONA:
QUANDRANT	FIRE DANGER
Northern	High (11.25)
Southern	High (11.67)
Forecasted Burn Period	High (11.46)

NEW MEXICO:
QUANDRANT	FIRE DANGER
Northern	Moderate (9)
Southern	High (14.67)
Forecasted Burn Period	High (11.84)

	Updated: 5/17/2025-08:52

PSA	Adjective	Hours
SW01	High	12
SW02	High	14
SW03	High	11
SW04	High	12
SW05	Moderate	7
SW06N	High	11
SW06S	High	13
SW07	Not Reported	Not Reported
SW08	High	13
SW09	Very High	16
SW10	Moderate	9
SW11	Not Reported	Not Reported
SW12	Not Reported	Not Reported
SW13	Not Reported	Not Reported
SW14N	Very High	15


		Updated: 5/17/2025-08:52

SWA Forecasted Forecasted Burn Periods

Burn Period Forecasts are provided by Arizona State University.
Observations are taken from RAWS stations and forecasted to
Low, Moderate, High, Very High, Extreme.

B. ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT (ERC) CHARTS

ARIZONA:

Date:	14 May 2025
Current:	54
Previous:	54
Percentile	50th Percentile
Trending (Past 2-days)	NO CHANGE

90th Percentile	67
97th Percentile	75


NEW MEXICO:

Date	14 May 2025
Current:	49
Previous:	43
Percentile	75th Percentile
Trending (Past 2-days)	UPWARD

90th Percentile	55
97th Percentile	64

	Updated: 5/17/2025-08:52

	PERCENTILE	SHORT-TERM TRENDING
SW01	50th Percentile	DOWNWARD
SW02	50th Percentile	DOWNWARD
SW03	50th Percentile	DOWNWARD
SW04	50th Percentile	UPWARD
SW05	75th Percentile	UPWARD
SW06N	75th Percentile	UPWARD
SW06S	75th Percentile	UPWARD
SW07	50th Percentile	UPWARD
SW08	90th Percentile	UPWARD
SW09	90th Percentile	UPWARD
SW10	50th Percentile	UPWARD
SW11	75th Percentile	UPWARD
SW12	75th Percentile	UPWARD
SW13	50th Percentile	UPWARD
SW14N	50th Percentile	UPWARD


		Updated: 5/17/2025-08:52

ARIZONA

NEW MEXICO
/ WEST TEXAS

ERC Charts are produced daily using a 2-Day Moving Average for Arizona and New Mexico. Selected fire weather stations are used in creating the State ERC Charts. PSA charts are created using available stations within the respective PSA.

C. RAWS / WIMS ADJECTIVE READINGS (BY PSA)

ARIZONA:		NEW MEXICO:
PSA	READING	PSA	READING
SW01	Moderate (2)	SW07	High (2.5)
SW02	High (2.67)	SW08	High (3.33)
SW03	High (3)	SW09	High (3)
SW04	Moderate (2)	SW10	High (2.5)
SW05	Moderate (2.33)	SW11	High (2.5)
SW06N	High (2.5)	SW12	Very High (3.67)
SW06S	High (3.25)	SW13	Moderate (1.5)
		SW14N	High (2.67)
FIRE DANGER	High (2.54)	FIRE DANGER	High (2.71)

			Updated: 5/17/2025-08:52

RAWS / WIMS Adjective Readings (By PSA) are downloaded via the National Weather Information System (WIMS) for Arizona and New Mexico to build the following table.
There are five categories defined for fire danger:
Low, Moderate, High, Very High, and Extreme

5. FIRE RESTRICTIONS

A. FIRE RESTRICTIONS (BY STATE)

ARIZONA	NUMBER	UNITS

COUNTIES:	5	Pinal;Pima;Cochise;Graham;Greenlee
STATE LANDS:	2	AZ-FTA, AZ-SCA
BIA/TRIBES:	2	AZ-SAFD, AZ-TUFD
BLM:	1	AZ-ORP
NPS:
USFWS:	3	AZ-TNF, AZ-CNF;AZ-ASF
USFS:
	13


NEW MEXICO	NUMBER	UNITS

COUNTIES:
STATE LANDS:
BIA/TRIBES:	1	NM-ROD
BLM:	1	NM-CCP
NPS:
USFWS:	2	NM-GNF, NM-LNF
USFS:
	4

	Updated:	05/17/2025-08:58

SW Fire Restrictions

6. Resource Summary

A. Resources As Available in the Southwest Area

RESOURCES IN SW AREA: *		SW RESOURCES TO OUT-OF-AREA:
INCIDENT MANAGEMENT TEAMS Assigned: 1 CIMT (Team NM-SWC - Greer); 1 IMT3 (Team AZ-TDC - Bryce). Preposition: None. Available: 3 CIMT (Team 1); 6 IMT3 . AIRCRAFT Assigned: 2 VLAT/LAT; 3 FWAA; 3 HE1R/HE1S; 1 HE2R/HE2S; 4 HE3S; . Available: 9 VLAT/LAT; 4 FWLP/FASM; 2 FWAA; 9 ATS3/ATS4; .	CREWS Assigned: 14 CRW1; 1 CR2I; 1 CRW2; 2 CRWC; Preposition: 5 CRW1; 3 WFM1/WFM2; 2 SMOD; Available: 1 CRW1; 1 SMOD/WFM1/WFM2; ENGINES Assigned: 2 ENG1; 15 ENG3; 35 ENG6. Prepositon: None. Available: 336 ENG1; 24 ENG2; 221 ENG3; 44 ENG4; 33 ENG5; 580 ENG6; . Water Tenders Assigned: 1 WTS1; 7 WTS2; 1 WTS3; 1 WTT1; 3 WTT2 . Prepositon: None. Available: 336 WTS1; 24 WTS2; 221 WTS3; 44 WTT1; 33 WTT2 .	IMT None AIRCRAFT 1 ATS3-ATS4; CREWS None ENGINES 1 ENG6; ENGINES
		* Available National / GACC Only Updated: 05/17/2025-07:31

SW 7-Day Prediction Maps

SWCC Fire Environment Report (PDF Version)

SW FIRE ENVIRONMENT REPORT (SFER)
Saturday - May 17 - 2025 - 12:00