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NATIONAL FIRE DANGER RATING SYSTEM (NFDRS)

ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT (ERC)

1. 2-DAY MOVING AVERAGE ERC CHARTS - BY PREDICTIVE SERVICES AREA (PSA)

Click on Predictive Services Area to view the latest ERC Chart.

[Graphic] - Daily 3-Day Moving Average ERC Chart 2-DAY ERC CHART

 

2. 2-DAY MOVING AVERAGE ERC CHARTS - INDIVIDUAL STATION CHARTS

Click on Orange Button below to view ERC Chart for the station.

[Graphic] - SWA Weather Station ERC & BI Location Map 20212-Dry Park 20212-Dry Park 20207-Tusayan 20213-Frasier Wells 21007-Mule Shoe 20115-Moss Basin 20501-Iron Springs 20509-Stanton 45801 - Squaw Lake 20402-Piney Hill 290101-Washington Pass 290102-Albino Canyon 20209-Flagstaff 20301-Heber 20303-Lakeside 20601-Globe 20603-Pleasant Valley Tonto Basin - 20606 21005-Columbine 21202-Saguaro Sasabe 21206 Sauaro - 21202 Rincon 21207 290702-Jemez 291302-Grants 291801-Tower 20401-Alpine 292001-Beaverhead Slaughter Mesa 292008 292009-Pelona 292103-Bosque 292702-Hatchett 292903-Dripping Springs 290210-Truchas 291202-Pecos 291501-Mountainair 292102-Chupadera Smokey Bear 292203 293002-Mayhill 293003-Mescal 417103-The Bowl 418701-Cedar 292301-Eight Mile Draw 293101-Batdraw 293104-Caprock 2-DAY MOVING AVERAGE

PSA STATION NUMBER STATION NAME (AGENCY - UNIT) PSA STATION NUMBER STATION NAME (AGENCY - UNIT)
1 20207 Tusayan (USFS - KNF) 7 290702 Jemez (USFS - SNF)
  20211 Bright Angel (NPS - GCP)   290801 Tower (NPS - BAP)
  20212 Drypark (USFS - KNF)   291302 Grants (USFS - CIF)
  20213 Frazier Well (BIA - TCA) 8 20401 Alpine (USFS - ASF)
2 20115 Moss Basin (BLM - KFO)   292001 Beaverhead (USFS - GNF)
  20116 Union Pass (BLM - KFO)   292008 Slaughter Mesa (USFS - GNF)
  20501 Iron Springs (USFS - PNF)   292009 Pelona Mtn (BLM - SCD)
  20509 Stanton (BLM - PHD) 9 292103 Bosque (FWS - BDR)
3 45801 Squaw Lake (FWS - IMR)   292702 Hatchett (BLM - LCD)
4 20402 Piney Hill (BIA - NAA)   292903 Dripping Springs (BLM - LCD)
  290101 Washington Pass (BIA - NAA) 10 290210 Truchas (USFS - CAF)
  290102 Albino Canyon (BLM - FAD)   291202 Pecos (USFS - SNF)
5 20209 Flagstaff (USFS - COF) 11 292102 Chupadera (BLM - LCD)
  20301 Heber (USFS - ASF)   291501 Mountainair (USFS - CIF)
  20303 Lakeside (USFS - ASF) 12 292203 Smokey Bear (USFS - LNF)
6N 20601 Globe (USFS - TNF)   293002 Mayhill (USFS - LNF)
  20603 Pleasant Valley (USFS - TNF)   293003 Mescal (BIA - MEA)
  20606 Tonto Basin (USFS - TNF)   417103 The Bowl (NPS - GUP
6S 21005 Columbine (USFS - CNF) 13 418701 Cedar (NPS - LAP)
  21007 Mule Shoe (BLM - GID) 14 292301 Eight Mile Draw (BLM - ROD)
  21202 Saguaro (USFS - CNF)   293101 Batdraw (NPS - CCP)
  21206 Sasabe (FWS - BAR)   293104 Caprock (BLM - ROD)
  21207 Rincon (NPS - SAP)      
           

** Charts are created using Fuel Model Y as the representative model and posted Monday, Wednesday, and Friday March 1 - October 31.  Friday's only November 1 - February 28/29. 

Individual Station ERC Charts

3. PANEL VIEW OF ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO (WTX) ERC CHARTS

Arizona  |  New Mexico


** All graphs above (except those specifically identified as BI) are created using Fuel Model G (Short Needle / Heavy Dead) as the representative fuel model. 
Graphs are posted, at minimum, Tuesday and Friday from March to October and Friday only from November to February. 

What is the Energy Release Component (ERC)?

The Energy Release Component (ERC) is based on the estimated potential available energy released per unit area in the flaming front of a fire. The day-to-day variations of the ERC are caused by changes in the moisture contents of the various fuel classes, including the 1,000 hour timelag class. 

The ERC is derived from predictions of

  1. the rate of heat release per unit area during flaming combustion and
  2. the duration of flaming.

How are the Graphs used?

All wildland protection agencies are directed to protect life, property, and natural resources entrusted to them. These requirements dictate strict attention be paid to the availability and use of suppression resources. In the Southwest Area, the Graphs are averaged over 3-day periods.  They are primarily used to look at the seasonal trends, a comparison tool against previous years, and as one tool used in determining the Area preparedness level. Each chart displays the current year BI or ERC values relative to the average for a 25-year period, the average of the highest values during the same period, and when the values reach the 90th and 97th percentiles. The Graphs are not designed to be site specific, they provide only a general picture of how conditions are currently and how the season is progressing in the Southwest. Units throughout the SWA produce their own local, site specific chart(s).

The Graphs are only one of the components used in determining the SWA preparedness level. Other components that must be considered include; (1) current and long range forecasted weather affecting current and forecasted fire behavior/potential, (2) resource committments to incidents, (3) individual agency fire reports, (4) National Preparedness Level, (5) air quality considerations, and (6) fire suppression resource availability. The breakpoints in which the ERC Curve is used to assist in determining the area preparedness level are indicated by lines drawn horizontally (i.e. PL-2, PL-3, PL-4) on the chart.  The 90th corresponds to the "very high" adjective reading and the 97th percentile corresponds to the "extreme" adjective reading. 


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