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NATIONAL FIRE DANGER RATING SYSTEM (NFDRS)

ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT (ERC)

1. 2-DAY MOVING AVERAGE ERC CHARTS - BY PREDICTIVE SERVICES AREA (PSA)

Click on Predictive Services Area to view the latest ERC Chart.

Image of the Southwest with CLickable Sections for Each PSA.

2-Day Moving Average ERC Charts - By PSA   All ERC Percentile values

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2014 - 2023 ERC Percentile Breakpoints

PSA 50th 60th 70th 75th 80th 85th 90th 95th 97th
SW01 30 36 42 45 48 53 58 65 67
SW02 46 51 56 59 62 66 70 75 78
SW03 66 70 74 76 79 82 86 90 92
SW04 30 35 41 44 47 50 54 62 64
SW05 29 34 40 43 46 49 53 60 64
SW06N 50 56 62 66 70 74 80 86 88
SW06S 42 48 54 56 60 63 68 75 78
SW07 31 36 41 43 45 49 53 60 63
SW08 32 36 41 43 47 49 54 61 64
SW09 46 51 55 58 61 64 68 73 77
SW10 26 30 33 35 38 40 44 48 51
SW11 39 43 47 50 52 55 59 64 67
SW12 33 36 40 43 45 47 51 55 58
SW13 37 40 44 46 48 50 53 58 60
SW14N 42 46 50 51 53 56 60 66 68

 

2. 2-DAY MOVING AVERAGE ERC CHARTS - INDIVIDUAL STATION CHARTS

Click on Orange Button below to view ERC Chart for the station. *Please note that the image links do not always work on mobile browsers, a replacement is under development, in the meanwhile select the deisred weather station from the table below as necessary.

Image of the Southwest Area with Individual RAWS Stations locations depicted
PSA STATION NUMBER STATION NAME (AGENCY - UNIT) PSA STATION NUMBER STATION NAME (AGENCY - UNIT)
1 20207 Tusayan (USFS - KNF) 7 290702 Jemez (USFS - SNF)
  20212 Drypark (USFS - KNF)   290801 Tower (NPS - BAP)
  20213 Frazier Well (BIA - TCA)   291302 Grants (USFS - CIF)
2 20115 Moss Basin (BLM - KFO) 8 20401 Alpine (USFS - ASF)
  20501 Iron Springs (USFS - PNF)   292001 Beaverhead (USFS - GNF)
  20509 Stanton (BLM - PHD)   292008 Slaughter Mesa (USFS - GNF)
3 45801 Senator Wash (FWS - IMR)   292009 Pelona Mtn (BLM - SCD)
4 20402 Piney Hill (BIA - NAA) 9 292103 Bosque (FWS - BDR)
  290101 Washington Pass (BIA - NAA)   292702 Hatchett (BLM - LCD)
  290102 Albino Canyon (BLM - FAD)   292903 Dripping Springs (BLM - LCD)
5 20209 Flagstaff (USFS - COF) 10 290210 Truchas (USFS - CAF)
  20301 Heber (USFS - ASF)   291202 Pecos (USFS - SNF)
  20303 Lakeside (USFS - ASF) 11 292102 Chupadera (BLM - LCD)
6N 20601 Globe (USFS - TNF)   291501 Mountainair (USFS - CIF)
  20606 Tonto Basin (USFS - TNF) 12 292203 Smokey Bear (USFS - LNF)
6S 21005 Columbine (USFS - CNF)   293002 Mayhill (USFS - LNF)
  21007 Mule Shoe (BLM - GID)   293003 Mescal (BIA - MEA)
  21202 Saguaro (USFS - CNF) 13 292301 Eight Mile Draw (BLM - ROD)**
  21206 Sasabe (FWS - BAR)   418701 Cedar (NPS - LAP)**
      14 292301 Eight Mile Draw (BLM - ROD)
Other* 20211 Bright Angel (NPS - GCP)   293101 Batdraw (NPS - CCP)
  20603 Pleasant Valley (USFS - TNF)   293104 Caprock (BLM - ROD)
  20116 Union Pass (BLM - KFO)      
  21207 Rincon (NPS - SAP)      

Charts are created using Fuel Model Y as the representative model and posted Semi-Weekly, M-W-F when possible. *Indicate extra stations that are not a Key RAWS for any PSA. **Indicates a RAWS station not located within the given PSA, but used to calculate that PSAs values. 

Individual Station ERC Charts

What is the Energy Release Component (ERC)?

The Energy Release Component (ERC) is based on the estimated potential available energy released per unit area in the flaming front of a fire. The day-to-day variations of the ERC are caused by changes in the moisture contents of the various fuel classes, including the 1,000 hour timelag class. 

The ERC is derived from predictions of

  1. the rate of heat release per unit area during flaming combustion and
  2. the duration of flaming.

How are the Graphs used?

All wildland protection agencies are directed to protect life, property, and natural resources entrusted to them. These requirements dictate strict attention be paid to the availability and use of suppression resources. In the Southwest Area, the Graphs are averaged over 2-day periods.  They are primarily used to look at the seasonal trends, a comparison tool against previous years, and as one tool used in determining the Area preparedness level. Each chart displays the current year BI or ERC values relative to the average for a 25-year period, the average of the highest values during the same period, and when the values reach the 90th and 97th percentiles. The Graphs are not designed to be site specific, they provide only a general picture of how conditions are currently and how the season is progressing in the Southwest. Units throughout the SWA produce their own local, site specific chart(s).

The Graphs are only one of the components used in determining the SWA preparedness level. Other components that must be considered include; (1) current and long range forecasted weather affecting current and forecasted fire behavior/potential, (2) resource committments to incidents, (3) individual agency fire reports, (4) National Preparedness Level, (5) air quality considerations, and (6) fire suppression resource availability. The breakpoints in which the ERC Curve is used to assist in determining the area preparedness level are indicated by lines drawn horizontally (i.e. PL-2, PL-3, PL-4) on the chart.  The 90th corresponds to the "very high" adjective reading and the 97th percentile corresponds to the "extreme" adjective reading. 

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