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7 Day ERC/IC Projections Predictive Service Area Ytd Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Historical
Nov 06 Nov 07 Nov 08 Nov 09 Nov 10 Nov 11 Nov 12 Nov 13 Ave 97% Max
Daily maximum ERCs and ICs at each key RAWS station are averaged for each PSA for each calendar day.  This data is averaged for each week of each fire season (June through Oct.) of the historical record (past 5-15 years).  The historical data in light blue represents the "per PSA-per week" results over the period of record, with the max weekly PSA ERC and IC on record in the far right column for a historical perspective.
North Coast                      
Mid Coast to Mendocino 15 17 20 23 24 21 22 23      
Bay Area 27 27 30 31 31 28 29 27      
Northwestern Mountains 6 13 20 24 24 21 23 25      
Sacramento Valley/Foothills 32 31 33 38 37 32 36 37      
Northeastern CA 18 20 24 26 23 20 20 21      
Northern Sierra 35 37 40 43 41 32 35 35      
East Side 46 46 47 52 49 44 45 47      
                         
 
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The projected daily PSA max ERC and max IC values are compared with the historical weekly data, and the daily projection boxes are color-coded according to the following:
Predictive Service Area Ytd Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Historical
Nov 06 Nov 07 Nov 08 Nov 09 Nov 10 Nov 11 Nov 12 Nov 13 Ave 97% Max
North Coast                      
Mid Coast to Mendocino 0 11 24 30 27 17 23 25      
Below average (BLUE)
Bay Area 3 5 14 16 14 7 15 13      
Northwestern Mountains 1 20 30 35 27 14 22 27      
Average or above but less than the 97th percentile (YELLOW)
Sacramento Valley/Foothills 3 12 24 35 28 14 26 28      
Northeastern CA 0 9 18 25 19 11 11 17      
Northern Sierra 5 14 21 28 22 8 17 19      
97th percentile or above (RED)
East Side 16 21 27 40 31 26 21 32      
                                 
                                           
                                           
                                           
                                                                                                                                                                         
7 Day F100 Projections
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The same calculations were made for the daily minimum PSA relative humidity as above.  However…
Predictive Service Area Ytd Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Historical
Nov 06 Nov 07 Nov 08 Nov 09 Nov 10 Nov 11 Nov 12 Nov 13 Ave 97% Min
BLUE represents projections above the historical weekly PSA average
North Coast                      
Mid Coast to Mendocino 21 22 21 19 18 19 18 18      
Bay Area 15 17 16 16 17 17 17 18      
YELLOW - equal or drier than the historical average, but not as dry as the historical 97th percentile
Northwestern Mountains 23 22 19 17 16 17 16 16      
Sacramento Valley/Foothills 14 17 17 16 15 16 16 15      
Northeastern CA 18 19 19 17 17 19 19 18      
Northern Sierra 14 16 15 13 14 16 16 15      
RED - as dry or drier than the historical 97th percentile
East Side 8 10 11 10 10 11 12 11      
                                       
                                           
                                           
                                           
                                             
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