All Fires: 7 human-caused fires for 41 acres and 86 ligthning-caused fires for 278,789 acres were reported during the past 7 day period. The YTD number of human-caused fires and acres are higher than the five year average, the YTD number of lightning-caused fires and acres are lower than the five year average and the total number of fires for the WGB are higher than the five year average and the total acres for the WGB are lower than the five year average. The YTD total number of acres more than doubled this past week and is higher than the total of the last three years combined. Reference: WGB Morning Report

Fires >100 acres: 13 large fires this past 7 day period, for a total of 15 large fires for the month of September and 2 large fires for the month of October. For September, the average number of large fires is 4 and a median of 3. For October, the average and median is 1 large fire. Expect no large fires this outlook period. (Stats based on data 1988 - 2010). Reference: WGB YTD Fires >100

OUTLOOK:

LIGHT initial attack, as weather and fuel conditions are not favorable for ignition, growth and/or fire spread. Projections: 50% probability of at least one100+ acre fire , 6 % chance of at least one 5000+ acre fire. Reference: Fire Potential Forecast

General: No significant fire weather for this period. Reference: Reno Fire WX Forecast, Elko Fire WX Forecast, Las Vegas Fire WX Forecast

Temperature: Obs: Departure from average maximum temps were 3 - 15 degrees above normal across the state of Nevada over the past 7 days. Reference: DRI Temp Anomaly Map Forecast: 6 - 10 Day Outlook is for normal temps for all of Nevada. Reference: CPC (Climate Prediction Center) Temp Outlook

Precipitation:  Obs: Departure from average precipitation for the most part has been near below normal across the state during the past 7 days. Reference: DRI Precipitation Anomaly Map Forecast: The 6 - 10 Day Outlook is for above normal precipitation across the northwest portion of the state, normal in the central and below normal in the southeast. Reference: CPC Precipitation Outlook

Drought: As of September 27, 2011 abnormally dry conditions are only in the extreme southern tip and in a small portion of the center of Nevada. Reference: U.S. Drought Monitor. The outlook is for no long-term drought conditions to develop during the next 3 months. Reference: U.S. Drought Outlook

Lightning: See the Experimental Combined Lightning Potential / Fuel Moisture Graphic Page.

Monsoon:  N/A. Reference: HPC (Hydrometeorological Prediction Center)

El Nino / La Nina: La Niña has returned to the tropical Pacific Ocean.
•Sea surface temperatures (SST) anomalies have become increasingly negative in the east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean.
•Atmospheric circulation anomalies are consistent with La Niña.
•La Niña is expected to strengthen and continue into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2011-12. Reference: ENSO Update

National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS): ERCs are still above normal in all PSAs 10 and 11. However all PSAs are below the 80th percentile at this time and most likely will drop well below the 80th percentile, signalling and end of the fire season. Reference: ERC Charts BIs are below normal in PSAs 11,12 and 13, with the rest at or above normal. However l PSAs 7 - 13 are below the 80th percentile, with 1 - 6 above the 80th percentile. Expect BIs to drop well below the 80th percentile by the end of this period. Reference: BI Charts. 100 HR Dead Fuel Moistures in all PSAs will rise to above the 20th percentile due to projected wet weather and higher RH. 1000 HR Dead Fuel Moistures will rise above the 20th percentile due to projected wet weather. Reference: WB Projected ERC, F100 and F1000 Charts

WB Fuel Moisture: National Fuel Moisture Database (NFMD): Reference: Nevada NFMD

WB Fuels Status: Fuels status remains critical (cured) in those zones that have reported.. Reference: WGB Fuels Status

Normalized Difference Vegetative Index (NDVI) Images: WGB Relative Greenness, WGB Departure from Average Greenness

Growing Season Index (GSI): WGB GSI Image

Large fire potential will go to LOW by the end of the 7 day period. Reference: WGB 7-Day Significant Fire Potential

Aviation: Reference: Western Great Basin Aircraft Status Report

Smokejumpers:Reference: Smokejumper Status Report

Crews: Reference: Western Great Basin Crew Status Report

Incident Management Teams (IMT)s: National Type 1 IMT Rotation: , Incident Management Teams

Preparedness Level (PL): Western Great Basin has dropped to PL 3 due to decrease in resource commitment locally and decline of fire risk.WB is normally at PL 2 through September and dropping to PL 1 the first week of October. The National PL is at 2, the Southern Areas is at PL 3, the Eastern Area, Eastern Great Basin, Northwest, Southern CA, Rocky Mountains and Southwest are at PL 2. Reference: WB PL, pg 59, NICC PL, pg 46.

WGBCC Staffing: Currently open Monday - Sunday from 0600 - 1800 PDT, with an on-call Coordinator available after hours.

Forecasted conditions indicate LOW demand for initial attack resource mobilization within the geographic area.. Anticipate a LOW demand for resource needs from out-of-area, LOW to MODERATE demand in support of other geographic areas..

Response: Activity in the region the past 30 days overall has been LIGHT/ MODERATE and most likely remain LIGHT through the forecast period. Expect a steady demand to mobilize resources out-of-area, especially to the Southern Area, mainly Texas.

Safety: "A lesson is truly learned when we modify our behavior to reflect what we now know." Reference: Lessons Learned, Risk Management, LCES, Fire Danger Pocket Cards

WGBCC Website: News and Notes is now available through Twitter. There is a product feedback link available at the top of the Weather and Outlooks pages.