MONTHLY FIRE WEATHER / FIRE DANGER OUTLOOK Disclaimer
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1. SOUTHWEST AREA
   
2. DATE:  May 1, 2008
   
3. POTENTIAL FOR SERIOUS/CRITICAL FIRE PROBLEMS * :
    

May 1 - 30, 2008

 Below Normal   Normal x Above Normal *
(Southwest AZ, Southern AZ and NM, Central & Eastern NM, West Texas) 		X
     * Defined as incidents where significant resources would be utilized (i.e. Heavy Air, IMT's, T1 Crews).
4. WEATHER FACTORS AND OUTLOOK:
 

Drought Conditions:  Only areas of far western Arizona continued to have moderate drought conditions as of April 29th, although some abnormally conditions have recently emerged across the rest of Arizona.  At the same time, abnormally dry to severe drought conditions have continued to develop across many areas east of the divide.  The most recently available U.S seasonal drought outlook released May 1st indicated that drought conditions are expected to persist across far western Arizona and either continue to develop and/or persist across much of the remainder of the region into July.   
 
Precipitation Anomalies and Outlook:  Precipitation in April was generally meager area-wide.  From the continental divide westward nearly all areas averaged between 0 and 15% of average.  To the east, a couple small areas averaged 100% of average or more, but many areas experienced only between 25 to 70% of average.  The latest CPC climate outlook for May continues to indicate drier than normal conditions nearly area-wide.  However, both past analog years and expected pattern trends suggest that normal to above-normal May precipitation is possible across the northern tier of the region into northwestern TX.  In addition, areas of normal to above normal precipitation should also occur across the eastern plains due to an increase in dry-line thunderstorm activity.  Moreover, there is a chance of a few cutoff lows to meander over the region from the eastern Pacific, although moisture amounts associated with this scenario remain in question.    

Temperature Anomalies and Outlook:  Average high temperatures for April were generally 1-4 degrees above average across most of the region.  However, in parts of northern New Mexico and the Mogollon rim area there were areas than ran 1-3 degrees below normal for April.  The latest CPC climate outlook indicates normal temperatures area-wide for May.  However, pattern recognition and past analog years indicate a decent likelihood of experiencing above normal temperatures generally east of the divide with normal temperatures west of the divide.
 
                               
5. FUEL FACTORS AND OUTLOOK:  
DEAD FINE FUELS:
GRASS STAGE: Green X Cured       Green-up is underway across portions of southern Arizona below about 5000 feet and will likely begin soon across portions of southern New Mexico, albeit likely less robust compared with Arizona.  Weak green-up should begin to occur in the fine fuels across eastern New Mexico/west Texas in the next few weeks.  However, due to the above average fine fuel loadings and ongoing drought, it’s unlikely that effective greening of the fuels will become established enough to impact the continued Above Normal fire potential conditions in these areas.
             
NEW GROWTH: Sparse   Normal X Above Normal X
                          
  LIVE FUEL MOISTURE: *
 
Arizona Min Max Average +/- previous month
Fir, Douglas
        
Juniper, One-Seed
       
Pine, Pinon
       
Pine, Ponderosa
       
Sagebrush
        
New Mexico        
Fir, Douglas
        
Juniper, One-Seed
       
Pine, Pinon
       
Pine, Ponderosa
       
Sagebrush
        
         
1000-HOUR DEAD FUEL MOISTURE: ARIZONA        
  SEZ 5 7 6 N/A
  CWZ 4 6 5 N/A
  WMZ 7 11 9 N/A
  FLZ 15 23 18 N/A
  GCZ 5 49 27 N/A
           
  NEW MEXICO        
  PEZ 4 6 5 N/A
  GLZ 4 15 9 N/A
  ABZ 6 8 7 N/A
  SNZ 6 14 10 N/A
  TAZ 13 48 30 N/A
AVERAGE 1000-HOUR FUEL MOISTURE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR: 10.5-11.7
  * March - September Onlyy
                          
6. FIRE OCCURRENCE:  
ALL FIRES *   Coming Month
  Average Median

FIRES:

 733 656

ACRES:

 54,430 135,634
* Data derived from Sit Report Program,
Data Years 1991-2006

FIRES > 100 ACRES **

      
  Arizona 9 7
  New Mexico 7 5
  Total SWA 16 10
    ** Data derived from ICS-209's,
Data Years 1990-2006
                                                                    
7. IMPLICATIONS:
 
   

Fuels Potential

Above Normal across all of eastern and southern New Mexico, nearly all of west Texas, and much of the southern half of Arizona.  Normal elsewhere.  The potential for significant mainly human-caused fire activity will continue across southern and eastern portions of the area where primarily cured and abundant grasses will be subjected to continued relatively frequent dry wind events and an increasing likelihood of lightning.  The remainder of the area is expected to generally have non-critical fuels and weather conditions.   

Prescribed Fire Implications

Conditions will be semi-favorable for primarily pre-greenup prescribed fire activity during the first half of the month, as windows will open between passing storm systems and increased RH values/chance of precipitation will buffer either side of the breezy and dry periods.  Fire managers should continue to be on alert for more sustained drying and a continued threat of significant wind events during the month as well as the gradually increasing likelihood of lightning.  Conditions will continue to be favorable for pile burning at higher elevations where there is dwindling snow-pack and/or high soil and fuel moisture levels. Smoke dispersion problems should be minimal and short-lived due to periodic storm passages and wind events as well as an increasing sun angle.          
Miscellaneous Green-up is underway across portions of southern Arizona below about 5000 feet and will likely begin soon across portions of southern New Mexico, albeit likely less robust compared with Arizona.  Weak green-up should begin to occur in the fine fuels across eastern New Mexico/west Texas in the next few weeks.  However, due to the above average fine fuel loadings and ongoing drought, it’s unlikely that effective greening of the fuels will become established enough to impact the continued Above Normal fire potential conditions in these areas.

Resource Implications

 
  Coming Month
Average Median
FIRES >100 ACRES - RESOURCES ASSIGNED
Type 1 Crews 25 13
Type 2 Crews 50 68
Helicopters 15 15
Engines 98 83
Dozers 19 9
Water Tenders 83 22
Personnel 2002 2004
FIRES > 100 ACRES
  16 10
FIRES > 100 ACRES WHERE AT LEAST ONE IMT HAS BEEN ASSIGNED
  4 2
    * March - Sept. Only
    Data Years: 1991 - 2006
     
   
8. SOUTHWEST AREA FIRE POTENTIAL OUTLOOK MAP
                                  

Historical Maps of Wildland Fires for the Coming Month
Where An IMT was Assigned 1986 - 2004
Map of Arizona Fires for the Coming Month Map of New Mexico Fires for the Coming Month
Combined Maps