DAILY FIRE BEHAVIOR REPORT

Fire Behavior Forecast No. 68                        

Fire Name: Southwest Area 2008	Forecast Valid for: July 9, 2008 - Day
Agency: All Federal and State Cooperators	Date/Time Issued: 7/8/08 @ 1730 MDT
Next Update: *****	Signed: Gene Rogers, Fire Behavior Analyst

This is a general fire behavior forecast covering the entire Southwest Geographic Area.  It is designed to provide wildland fire managers with an overall view of fire behavior potential and to help wildland firefighters with the fire order " initiate all actions based on current and expected fire behavior".  Firefighters must use onsite observations and spot weather forecasts to calculate site-specific fire behavior for individual wildland fires. Fire behavior spread rates describe only surface fire conditions and do not factor crowning or spotting. Fire Behavior report

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     ***** THE FIRE BEHAVIOR FORECAST WILL NOT BE UPDATED UNTIL CONDITIONS WARRANT

FIRE WEATHER SUMMARY:

See the Fire Weather Forecasts for each SWA Fire Weather Zone here: Interactive Fire Weather Forecast Map for Southwest Area

 

**Red Flag Warnings/Fire Weather Watches:  

.....NONE ........ For warning/watch statements see:  National Fire Weather Page

 

 **Haines Index: THE HAINES INDEX VERY LOW TO HIGH ACROSS THE SWA.

  FOR THE HAINES INDEX IN YOUR AREA SEE YOUR SPECIFIC ZONE FORECAST  

 

**Fire Weather Maps for Today and Tomorrow:

(Click Maps to Enlarge)

 

 

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**FIRE BEHAVIOR FORECAST:

**General Fire Behavior:   (Click map below to enlarge)

• Fire behavior potential continues to moderate across the SWA.  Fire behavior potential will be ACTIVE to VERY ACTIVE only in far western/northern Arizona.  Outflow winds from thunderstorms will accelerate fire spread.  EXTREME fire behavior potential is diminishing rapidly, but still possible on mountain slopes in the afternoon in the form of crown runs in heavy timbered areas, PJ, and brush on slopes aligned with wind. 

**Specific Fire Behavior:

Arizona: HOT AND DRY IN FAR WEST, AROUND KINGMAN. MOSTLY WET THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE.

• MODERATE to ACTIVE fire behavior potential in southeastern Arizona.
• The foothills from Globe to the Kingman area will have the potential from mostly ACTIVE to VERY ACTIVE fire behavior.  EXTREME crown runs are possible, but not probable, on wind-aligned slopes in timber, PJ, and brush. 
• ACTIVE fire behavior potential exists in most of the desert and foothill low country anywhere that cured grass is abundant. 
• The highest elevations of the Mogollon Rim and the North Kaibab have ACTIVE to VERY ACTIVE fire behavior potential. 
• The Colorado River and Gila River riparian corridors will see a potential for VERY ACTIVE fire behavior in cattails and salt cedar.

New Mexico: DIMINISHING FIRE BEHAVIOR POTENTIAL.

Scattered wet and mixed thunderstorms across the state.

• Fire behavior has moderated across New Mexico from east to west.  MODERATE to ACTIVE fire behavior potential in northwestern to central parts of the state.  LOW to MODERATE in eastern New Mexico.
• ACTIVE to VERY ACTIVE fire behavior on aligned slopes in timber, PJ, and brush in southwest New Mexico.  
• Fire behavior potential in low country areas of the southern and northwest NM with abundant cured grass could reach ACTIVE levels where clouds allow sun to penetrate. 
• LOW to MODERATE fire behavior potential in the higher northern mountains. 

West Texas: ISOLATED WET THUNDER STORMS SW TEXAS.

• Fire behavior potential diminishing in the Guadalupes/ Delaware/ Diablos Mountains areas and adjacent plains and on the Marfa Plateau.  Fire behavior potential MODERATE.
• Fire behavior potential MODERATE in the northern panhandle.

**Extended Fire Behavior Outlook:  
(see also 7 Day Significant Fire Potential and 7 Day National Significant Fire Potential Map).

• Wet and mixed thunderstorms will continue to reduce fire behavior in New Mexico and eastern Arizona. 
• Arizona will have the highest fire behavior potential, mainly in the far western portion of the state.
• Slow warming and drying into early part of this week followed by significant moisture arriving Thursday evening or so will add to the cumulative effect of higher humdities.  Result will be subdued fire behavior potential  in the SWA until September. LOW to MODERATE fire behavior will move east to west across New Mexico by the weekend. 
• There is increasing evidence that the Southwest Monsoon may be on schedule--starting late in the first or second week of July.  See Seasonal Outlook for more. NEW!!! UPDATED JUNE 12.

• See Extended Weather Graphics for the next few days expected weather.

• See U. S. 5 Day Precipitation Outlook for the longer term precipitation outlook. 

• See the Current U.S. Drought Monitor  for current drought information.

 

**Adjective Ratings for Fire Behavior:
(click chart below for paper on Adjective Ratings for Fire Behavior )

**Observed Fire Behavior:  No new pictures submitted.

Walla Valley Fire

Click on the link to see a picture of the Walla Valley Fire.  Fire behavior is moderating.

**Energy Release Component Charts:

ERC is a very good indicator of the condition of fuels and the depth of drought if calculated properly.  Click this link for selected weather stations ERC graph Southwest NFDRS Station Link Map.

• ERC's are generally holding to dropping slightly in western Arizona.  There is a significant drop in ERC across the SWA to the east.  All ERC's will be dropping by the weekend.

• The ERC for the Southwest Area as a whole is at the 90th percentile.  It is expected to follow normal seasonal trends and diminish into the second week of July.

• Click here for ERC by PSA    SW01   SW02  SW03  SW04  SW05  SW06N  SW06S    SW07    SW08   SW09  SW10  SW11  SW12  SW13  SW14N  SW14S   PSA map available here:    7 Day Significant Fire Potential  
•  Click here for Energy Release Component Forecast Map
• Click here for access to the National Fuel Moisture Database

 

 

 

**Air Operations:   

• No problems are anticipated today for the normal use of tactical aircraft, except around thunderstorm cells.
• See Estimated Maximum Density Altitude for a general reference chart of density altitude in your area.

**Safety:

• Although recent thunderstorms and increased relative humidity may have diminished fire behavior in some areas focus on the fire environment factors at the site of your fire.  Areas with accumulation of large dead fuels will take days of increased moisture to respond with reduced fire intensity.
• See the Southwest Area Fire Behavior Advisory for the EXTREME fuel conditions in many southwest forests and grasslands (last modified 07/08/08).
• A Southern Arizona Fuels and Fire Behavior Advisory for bufflegrass and Map of Affected Area has also been issued.
• See Avra Valley Bufflegrass Prescribed Fire for pictures of bufflegrass fire behavior.

**Validation and Feedback:

Please contact the SWCC Predictive Services Group and provide us feedback on the accuracy of these forecasts.  Your observations about general fuel conditions and observed fire behavior help us validate the accuracy of our forecasts so we can relay the best information to the field.   Our bottom line and the reason we are here is to provide for the safety of firefighters.

Gene Rogers, Fire Behavior Analyst

SWCC Predictive Services Group

PHONE: 505-842-3817 (SWCC) and 541-891-2145 (Cell)   EMAIL: phyrenut@aol.com

See also  Texas Forest Service Morning Briefing for a power point show of fire weather/behavior graphics, etc.

                                     BASE ALL ACTIONS ON CURRENT AND EXPECTED FIRE BEHAVIOR

See:  Fuel Models Used and Benchmark Behave Run Graphics  for metadata in support of fire behavior determinations