Fire_Potential_23116_image001,Fire_Potential_23116_image002

Issued:

Thursday, Nov 10, 2011

Updates: Mon. - Fri. by 1100 MDT

Predictive Service Areas

Ytd

Thu

Fri

Sat

Sun

Mon

Tue

Wed

Nov 09

Nov 10

Nov 11

Nov 12

Nov 13

Nov 14

Nov 15

Nov 16

SW01 Northwest AZ

SW02 West-Central AZ

SW03 Southwest AZ

SW04 Four Corners Area

SW05 Western Mogollon Rim

SW06N Central AZ/Phoenix Metro

SW06S Southeast AZ

SW07 Northwest NM Mtns.

SW08 White Mtns. & Gila Region

SW09 South/Cntrl. NM Lowlands

SW10 Sangre de Cristo Mtns.

SW11 Central NM Mtns. & Plains

SW12 South-Central NM Mtns.

SW13 Northeast NM/NW TX

SW14N Southeast NM/West TX

SW14S Southwest TX/Big Bend

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National Map

Product Description

Weather Synopsis:

Milder temperatures through the weekend focused central/east, but still near/below seasonal averages. Increasing moisture from W>E from late SAT into early next week, leading to moderate precipitation chances. A ridge is expected to build over the Southwest through FRI before the next Pacific system takes aim on and moves through the region late SAT>TUE. This system actually appears as if it will move through in two pieces, once to the north and one across the south, which will complicate potential precipitation impacts. For the near term, fair skies and gradually warming temperatures are foreseen today & FRI. On SAT, both clouds and breezes will be on the increase area-wide, as will precipitation chances across the north as the northern piece of this system moves through CO. From SUN>TUE, best precipitation chances will shift south across eastern AZ/western NM and then east across the southern 1/2 of the region as the 2nd piece of the system tracks east across northern Mexico. Cool and drier conditions under a NW flow are expected by the middle of next week in the wake of this system.

NOTICE: Forecasts for the following PSA's may be unavailable or unrepresentative of actual conditions due to missing observations from the stations listed:

Fire Potential:

Low-Moderate fire potential focused over the eastern plains areas, with an occasional High Risk for human-related fire activity when winds, dryness, and instability align. With the active pattern, fire potential in many mountain areas will become a non-factor and the perpetual Low-Moderate risk across the eastern plains (since the fall freeze in many areas) will spike to High on windy, dry, unstable days. Right now, it looks like the combination of some cloud cover, increased RH and cooler temperatures will prevent that from happening...though some enhanced fire potential due to milder & drier/breezy conditions are possible over the weekend before the moisture increases.