Issued:					Friday, Nov 06, 2009																				Updated:  M-F by 1030 MDT
																														Predictive Service Areas																			Ytd				Fri				Sat				Sun				Mon				Tue				Wed				Thu
																																																	Nov 05				Nov 06				Nov 07				Nov 08				Nov 09				Nov 10				Nov 11				Nov 12
																														SW01  Northwest AZ																			0				1				1				1				1				1				1				1
																														SW02  West-Central AZ																			0				3				3				2				2				2				2				2
																														SW03  Southwest AZ																			0				2				2				2				2				2				2				2
																														SW04  Four Corners Area																			0				2				2				2				2				2				1				1
																														SW05  Western Mogollon Rim																			0				2				2				2				2				2				2				1
																														SW06N  Central AZ/Phoenix Metro																			0				2				2				2				2				2				2				2
																														SW06S  Southeast AZ																			0				3				3				2				2				2				2				2
																														SW07   Northwest NM Mtns.																			0				1				2				2				1				1				1				1
																														SW08  White Mtns. & Gila Region																			0				1				1				1				1				1				1				1
																														SW09  South/Cntrl. NM Lowlands																			0				2				2				2				2				2				1				2
																														SW10  Sangre de Cristo Mtns.																			0				1				1				1				1				1				1				1
																														SW11  Central NM Mtns. & Plains																			0				1				1				2				2				1				1				1
																														SW12  South-Central NM Mtns.																			0				2				2				2				2				2				2				2
																														SW13  Northeast NM/NW TX																			0				2				2				2				2				2				2				2
																														SW14N  Southeast NM/West TX																			0				2				2				2				2				2				2				2
																														SW14S  Southwest TX/Big Bend																			0				1				1				1				1				1				1				1
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																														Weather Synopsis:
																														Warmth & dryness to give way to gradual moistening & cooling trend through the weekend.  Near normal seasonal conditions west early next week, but turning much cooler with increasing precipitation chances central/east.  The strong upper ridge over the area will weaken and shift eastward through the weekend, as the first in a series of weak upper level lows moves off the Pacific and across the southern portion of the area.  This system will bring considerable mid/high clouds along with it to assist in moderating warm & dry daytime conditions, but is not expected to produce much/if any precipitation.  A second, faster moving system is forecast to bring some light shower activity to parts of northern NM late SUN into early MON as it races across the Four Corners.  A robust backdoor cold front in the wake of this 2nd system will push west to near the continental divide by early TUE, bringing much cooler & more humid conditions with a few showers to the eastern half of the area.  Another system dropping towards the area later next week is expected to bring increased chances of shower activity.
	NOTICE:  Forecasts for the following PSA's may be unavailable or unrepresentative of actual conditions due to missing observations from the stations listed:
																														Fire Potential Discussion:
																														Fire potential moderate-low in AZ and low-negligible elsewhere into the weekend, but generally slowly decreasing area-wide.  After the recent increase in fire potential due to unusually warm & dry conditions, fire potential will level off and begin to slowly decrease over the weekend in response to a gradually cooling and moistening atmosphere.  Despite a lack of rainfall, increased cloud cover and RH and a return to more usual seasonal conditions will drive this change.  A resurgence of cool, moist air east of the divide early next week will keep fire potential there down, while another Pacific system dropping towards the region will keep the west in more seasonal conditions and increase the chance for rainfall later next week.
																														Resource Discussion:
																															Within Area																									National PL:										1			Southwest PL:										2
																															Low to moderate resource demand potential in SWA.  With dry to very dry conditions continuing to prevail throughout most of Arizona, and dry conditions throughout most of eastern / southern NM and West TX, there is still the potential for mobilization of an air tanker, crew, or engine(s) for initial or extended attack. Significant large-scale mobilization not anticipated.
		SOUTHWEST AREA ANTICIPATED RESOURCE DEMAND INDEX **																													From Out-of-Area
																															Low resource demand for resources from out-of-area.  Overall, low resource demand within the Southwest Area, thus expect low resource demand potential for resources from outside the Area.  Exception might be an air tanker or T1 crew.
							Anticipate low demand for resources from outside the Area
																															SW ANTICIPATED RESOURCE DEMAND (SWARD) **																						Fri				Sat				Sun				Mon				Tue				Wed				Thu
							Anticipate low to moderate demand for resources from outside the Area
																																																					Nov 06				Nov 07				Nov 08				Nov 09				Nov 10				Nov 11				Nov 12
																																Describing the SWARD.														T1 & 2 IMT's							1				1				1				1				1				1				1
							Anticipate moderate to high demand for resources from outside the Area
																																This table is experimental.														T1 Crews							1				1				1				1				1				1				1
							Anticipate high to very high demand for resources from outside the Area																								To Out-of-Area
																															Low resource demand potential for SWA resources to OUT-OF-AREA assignments.  Exception might be Southern CA, as dry to very dry conditions continue.
			** (Experimental Index)  Indicates resource commitment versus demand for additional resources. Resources refers to T1 resources (i.e. Crews, Helo's, A/T's, IMT's).
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