SWCC | Predictive Services | Fuels_Fire Danger

ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT (ERC)

1. 2-DAY MOVING AVERAGE ERC CHARTS - BY PREDICTIVE SERVICES AREA (PSA)

Click on Predictive Services Area to view the latest ERC Chart.

Image of the Southwest with CLickable Sections for Each PSA.

2-Day Moving Average ERC Charts - By PSA All ERC Percentile values

2014 - 2023 ERC Percentile Breakpoints

PSA	50th	60th	70th	75th	80th	85th	90th	95th	97th
SW01	30	36	42	45	48	53	58	65	67
SW02	46	51	56	59	62	66	70	75	78
SW03	66	70	74	76	79	82	86	90	92
SW04	30	35	41	44	47	50	54	62	64
SW05	29	34	40	43	46	49	53	60	64
SW06N	50	56	62	66	70	74	80	86	88
SW06S	42	48	54	56	60	63	68	75	78
SW07	31	36	41	43	45	49	53	60	63
SW08	32	36	41	43	47	49	54	61	64
SW09	46	51	55	58	61	64	68	73	77
SW10	26	30	33	35	38	40	44	48	51
SW11	39	43	47	50	52	55	59	64	67
SW12	33	36	40	43	45	47	51	55	58
SW13	37	40	44	46	48	50	53	58	60
SW14N	42	46	50	51	53	56	60	66	68

2. 2-DAY MOVING AVERAGE ERC CHARTS - INDIVIDUAL STATION CHARTS

Click on Orange Button below to view ERC Chart for the station. *Please note that the image links do not always work on mobile browsers, a replacement is under development, in the meanwhile select the deisred weather station from the table below as necessary.

Image of the Southwest Area with Individual RAWS Stations locations depicted

PSA	STATION NUMBER	STATION NAME (AGENCY - UNIT)	PSA	STATION NUMBER	STATION NAME (AGENCY - UNIT)
1	20207	Tusayan (USFS - KNF)	7	290702	Jemez (USFS - SNF)
	20211	Bright Angel (NPS - GCP)		290801	Tower (NPS - BAP)
	20212	Drypark (USFS - KNF)		291302	Grants (USFS - CIF)
	20213	Frazier Well (BIA - TCA)	8	20401	Alpine (USFS - ASF)
2	20115	Moss Basin (BLM - KFO)		292001	Beaverhead (USFS - GNF)
	20116	Union Pass (BLM - KFO)		292008	Slaughter Mesa (USFS - GNF)
	20501	Iron Springs (USFS - PNF)		292009	Pelona Mtn (BLM - SCD)
	20509	Stanton (BLM - PHD)	9	292103	Bosque (FWS - BDR)
3	45801	Squaw Lake (FWS - IMR)		292702	Hatchett (BLM - LCD)
4	20402	Piney Hill (BIA - NAA)		292903	Dripping Springs (BLM - LCD)
	290101	Washington Pass (BIA - NAA)	10	290210	Truchas (USFS - CAF)
	290102	Albino Canyon (BLM - FAD)		291202	Pecos (USFS - SNF)
5	20209	Flagstaff (USFS - COF)	11	292102	Chupadera (BLM - LCD)
	20301	Heber (USFS - ASF)		291501	Mountainair (USFS - CIF)
	20303	Lakeside (USFS - ASF)	12	292203	Smokey Bear (USFS - LNF)
6N	20601	Globe (USFS - TNF)		293002	Mayhill (USFS - LNF)
	20603	Pleasant Valley (USFS - TNF)		293003	Mescal (BIA - MEA)
	20606	Tonto Basin (USFS - TNF)
6S	21005	Columbine (USFS - CNF)	13
	21007	Mule Shoe (BLM - GID)	14	292301	Eight Mile Draw (BLM - ROD)
	21202	Saguaro (USFS - CNF)		293101	Batdraw (NPS - CCP)
	21206	Sasabe (FWS - BAR)		293104	Caprock (BLM - ROD)
	21207	Rincon (NPS - SAP)

** Charts are created using Fuel Model Y as the representative model and posted Weekly during PL 1, twice a week during PL 2, and thrice a week in PL 3 - 5.

Individual Station ERC Charts

What is the Energy Release Component (ERC)?

The Energy Release Component (ERC) is based on the estimated potential available energy released per unit area in the flaming front of a fire. The day-to-day variations of the ERC are caused by changes in the moisture contents of the various fuel classes, including the 1,000 hour timelag class.

The ERC is derived from predictions of

the rate of heat release per unit area during flaming combustion and
the duration of flaming.

How are the Graphs used?

All wildland protection agencies are directed to protect life, property, and natural resources entrusted to them. These requirements dictate strict attention be paid to the availability and use of suppression resources. In the Southwest Area, the Graphs are averaged over 2-day periods. They are primarily used to look at the seasonal trends, a comparison tool against previous years, and as one tool used in determining the Area preparedness level. Each chart displays the current year BI or ERC values relative to the average for a 25-year period, the average of the highest values during the same period, and when the values reach the 90th and 97th percentiles. The Graphs are not designed to be site specific, they provide only a general picture of how conditions are currently and how the season is progressing in the Southwest. Units throughout the SWA produce their own local, site specific chart(s).

The Graphs are only one of the components used in determining the SWA preparedness level. Other components that must be considered include; (1) current and long range forecasted weather affecting current and forecasted fire behavior/potential, (2) resource committments to incidents, (3) individual agency fire reports, (4) National Preparedness Level, (5) air quality considerations, and (6) fire suppression resource availability. The breakpoints in which the ERC Curve is used to assist in determining the area preparedness level are indicated by lines drawn horizontally (i.e. PL-2, PL-3, PL-4) on the chart. The 90th corresponds to the "very high" adjective reading and the 97th percentile corresponds to the "extreme" adjective reading.