Fire Potential Main Title
SA Sub Main Title 1
Issued:
Predictive Service Areas Ytd Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed
TX_OK
Jul 01 Jul 02 Jul 03 Jul 04 Jul 05 Jul 06 Jul 07 Jul 08
SA09 - TX West Central 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
SA05 - TX Central Northwest 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
SA10 - TX Central Southwest 2 2 2 R R 2 2 2
SA06 - TX Central Northeast 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
SA11 - TX Central Southeast 2 2 2 R R 2 2 2
SA07 - TX East North 2 2 2 R R 2 2 2
SA12 - TX East South 3 3 3 R R 3 3 3
SA14 - TX Southwest 3 3 3 R R 3 3 3
SA16 - TX Brownsville 2 2 2 R R 2 2 2
SA15 - TX South Coast 2 2 2 R R 2 2 2
SA13 - TX Northeast Coast 2 2 2 R R 2 2 2
SA02 - OK West 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
SA03 - OK Central 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
SA17 - OK/AR Ozarks 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
miss_valley_topo
Fire Potential Sub Main Title 2
Predictive Service Areas Ytd Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed
Jul 01 Jul 02 Jul 03 Jul 04 Jul 05 Jul 06 Jul 07 Jul 08
SA18 - AR East 0-Jan 0-Jan 0-Jan 0-Jan 0-Jan 0-Jan 0-Jan 0-Jan
SA19 - LA 2 2 2 R R 2 2 2
SA20 - LA Coast 3 3 3 R R 3 3 3
SA21 - LA/MS/AL Coast 3 3 3 R R 3 3 3
SA22 - MS Central & South 2 2 2 R R 2 2 2
SA23 - MS North 2 2 2 R R 2 2 2
SA38 - AL North 2 2 2 R R 2 2 2
SA39 - AL Central & South D 2 2 R R 2 2 2
Fire Potential Sub Main Title 3
Predictive Service Areas Ytd Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed
Jul 01 Jul 02 Jul 03 Jul 04 Jul 05 Jul 06 Jul 07 Jul 08
se_us_topo,SA Legend
SA40 - GA Northwest 2 2 2 R R 2 2 2
SA41 - GA Central 1-Jan 1-Jan 1-Jan R R 1-Jan 1-Jan 1-Jan
SA42 - GA Southeast 1 1 1 R R 1 1 1
SA46 - GA/FL Coast 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
SA26 - KY West 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
SA27 - KY East 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
SA24 - TN West 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
SA25 - TN Central & East 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
SA28 - APP North 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
SA31 - APP South 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
SA29 - VA Central 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
SA32 - NC Central 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
SA35 - SC Central 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
SA33 - NC Costal Plain 1 1 1 R R 1 1 2
SA36 - SC Coastal Plain 1 1 1 R R 1 1 2
SA30 - VA Coast 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
SA34 - NC Coast 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2
SA37 - SC Coast 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
SA43 - FL Panhandle D 2 2 R R 2 2 2
SA44 - FL North Coast 1 1 1 R R 1 1 1
SA45 - FL Northeast 1 1 1 R R 1 1 1
SA48 - FL Central 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
SA50 - FL South 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
SA47 - FL West Coast 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
SA51 - FL South Coast 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
SA49 - FL East Coast 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Weather Synopsis:
With the exception of FL, we’ll see widespread hot and rain free weather for the South.  Abundant tropical moisture and an old frontal boundary will continue to produce moderate to locally heavy 1”+ rain fall across the FL peninsula.  0.5”+ rains were widespread yesterday here with the Tampa area receiving over 5” since Tuesday and flash flood advisories remain in place here.
Yet another cold front will drop out of the Great Lakes over the weekend bringing showers back into the OH Valley and the northern half of our region by Monday with shower potential on the upswing for the parched central Gulf states Monday through Wednesday.  Because of the much drier conditions from the longer term 30+ day drier pattern from OK/TX to the Gulf Coast, we are highlighting the potential for increased initial attack due to fireworks and increased outdoor activity for the upcoming holiday weekend.  In lieu of any rain, drought conditions and ignition potential will continue to rise from central-southeast-east TX east to the Gulf Coast states.
Fire Potential Discussion:
Wild fire risks overall remain mostly average to below average overall.  However, a persistent 45 day+ drier pattern continues to reduce soil moistures, fuel moistures and increase KBDI values and ignition potential from southeast to northeast TX, across LA and southern MS to the FL Panhandle. In areas of southern-central TX, LA, and the Gulf Coastal region, the potential for fine fuels to ignite is now generally above average due low fuel moistures. ERC-G values continue to climb above the 90th percentile and some areas of coastal LA, MS and AL are nearing, at, or exceeding historical maximums. Green conditions and elevated humidity levels continue to offset high fire activity. KBDI values over the FL Panhandle have risen into the 500s with the below average rainfall – although some wetting rain last weekend has temporarily reduced ignition potential. Grasses continue to dry across central and western OK and Northern TX and we expect this to continue with the impact being the potential for above average fire activity.  We expect the areas detailed above to remain in a drier rain pattern through Jul which will mean ignition and initial attack potential will increase and remain above average through the month as fuel dryness is expected to reach critical levels. See our new monthly/seasonal outlooks posted on the web. 
Resources:
Southern Area Preparedness is at PL1.  No resource concerns. 
NOTICE:  Forecasts for the following Spa's may be unavailable or unrepresentative of actual conditions due to missing observations from the stations listed: