Northern Rockies Fire Behavior Forecast No. 53-2007
(click on any graphic in this product to enlarge it)

Today's PowerPoint Discussion (Will Return in 2008)

This is a general fire behavior forecast covering the entire Northern Rockies Geographic Area.  It is designed to provide wildland fire managers with an overall view of fire behavior potential and to help wildland firefighters with the fire order "initiate all actions based on current and expected fire behavior".  Firefighters must use onsite observations and spot weather forecasts to calculate site-specific fire behavior for individual wildland fires.

Fire Weather Summary:

**Red Flag Warnings/Fire Weather Watches:
• *****For complete warning/watch details and fire weather forecasts see: National Fire Weather Page

**Haines Index: ...SEE YOUR LOCAL AREA FORECAST

**National Current Weather Map/National Forecast NFDRS Fire Danger:

National Current Weather Map:		National Forecast NFDRS Fire Danger:
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See the Past 24 Hours Precipitation Map for Northern Rockies area 24 hour precipitation amounts.

See national precipitation outlooks at U.S. Today's Precipitation Outlook, U.S. Third and Fourth Day Precipitation Outlook , U.S. 5 Day Precipitation Outlook, and U.S. 14 Day Precipitation Outlook.

See 5 Day Weather Forecasts and Loops at NWS Northern Rockies Graphical Weather Forecasts
See also the Northern Rockies Predictive Services Daily Outlook.

**Fire Behavior Forecast:
• To be updated as warranted

• See: Behave Plus 3.02 fire behavior reference calculations (inputs for our analysis).

**Specific Fire Behavior for Today:

Northern Idaho/Western Montana:
• To be updated as warranted.

Central/ Eastern Montana/North Dakota:
• To be updated as warranted.

**Observed Fire Behavior:

• To be updated as warranted.

**Fire Behavior Map: (click map to enlarge, to be updated as warranted. )

Energy Release Component (ERC):
•

Heavy Fuel Moistures:
•

(Click on PSA for specific ERC, 1000-hr and 100-hr Fuel Moisture graphs)

See also 7 Day National Fire Potential Map.

See 6-10 and 8-14 day outlook charts located: 6-10 Day Prognosis, 8-14 Day Prognosis.

See also a short discussion and graph of: The Probability of a Season Ending Event

**Departure From Average Greenness		**Percent of Average Precipitation
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The "Percent of Average Precipitation Map" shows areas with more than average precipitation for the last 90 days rated as 125% or higher. Areas with less than average precipitation are shown as 75% or lower. Areas rated between 75-125% are near average.

**Validation and Feedback:
Please contact the the NRCC Predictive Services Group and provide us feedback on the accuracy of these forecasts. Your observations about general fuel conditions and observed fire behavior help us validate the accuracy of our forecasts. Our bottom line and the reason we are here is to provide for the safety of firefighters in field.

NRCC Predictive Services Group
406/329-4880

BASE ALL ACTIONS ON CURRENT AND EXPECTED FIRE BEHAVIOR!