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  FIRE BEHAVIOR OUTLOOK
 

Northern Rockies Fire Behavior Outlook
(click on any graphic in this product to enlarge it)

Valid for: August 8-15, 2014
                  (Revised 8/8)
Date/Time Issued: 08/08/14 @1800 MDT

Next Update: as warranted

Signed: Risa Lange-Navarro, FBAN

This is a general fire behavior outlook covering the entire Northern Rockies Geographic Area.  It is designed to provide wildland fire managers with an overall view of fire behavior potential and to help wildland firefighters with the fire order "initiate all actions based on current and expected fire behavior".  Firefighters must use onsite observations and spot weather forecasts to calculate site-specific fire behavior for individual wildland fires.

Fire Weather Summary: NOTE: Fire Weather summary was done on the date issued. Always check fire weather forecasts daily for any changes.


**Red Flag Warnings/Fire Weather Watches: None currently posted. But check daily for any changes. Be aware there may be Hazardous Weather Outlooks posted that can affect fire behavior also.

From the NR 7-day outlook…Very hot and Dry Monday and Tuesday. The weak, dry cold front has shown little deviation from the previous days’ worth of data as of today. Monsoonal moisture will pool ahead of the front again in SW-SC MT creating more ISOLD-Widely SCT marginally wet and dry storms that will require IA. The front will move into E MT and ND by Saturday afternoon and will create breezy conditions in NE MT. Isolated wet storms may accompany the front's passage.

The next periods of concern will be Monday and Tuesday when the thermal trough strengthens over ID/W MT on Monday and shifts east to be over W MT/C MT on Tuesday. Extremely dry and hot conditions are expected. Look for single digit rhs in some locations. While winds will be light and variable, except for afternoon upvalley winds, the high Haines nature of the weather conditions shall lead to very active fire behavior. After Tuesday, the confidence in anything the model data has to say drops to 0%. There is simply no agreement to glean any insights from. Experience and recent trends suggest that Wednesday should be another very dry and hot day for C MT-E MT while ID and W MT should see a developing SW flow that would lead to an influx of more convection. This is all speculative though.

*****
For complete fire weather watch and warning details and fire weather forecasts see: Western Region Fire Weather

**National Current Weather Map/National Forecast NFDRS Fire Danger:

National Current Weather Map:  
National Forecast NFDRS Fire Danger:
(Click maps to enlarge)
Current Weather Looping Map
 
National Fire Danfer for Tomorrow

See the MesoWest Regional Surface Map for Northern Rockies area 24 hour precipitation amounts.

See national precipitation outlooks at U.S. Today's Precipitation Outlook, U.S. Third and Fourth Day Precipitation Outlook , U.S. 5 Day Precipitation Outlook, and U.S. 14 Day Precipitation Outlook.

See 5 Day Weather Forecasts and Loops at
NWS Northern Rockies Graphical Weather Forecasts.


State of the Fuels:

• See observed values and other information in both the Northern Rockies Fire & Fuels Status and the National Fuel Moisture database. Add your trapline to the mix!

SPECIAL NOTE - Beetle-killed stands have increased dramatically over the past few years. Most observations are in the ponderosa pine and lodgepole pine stands throughout the Northern Rockies. Some research (Canada & USA) has shown foliar fuel moisture contents of <40% combined with low RHs has the potential for plume-dominated crown fire behavior. Recent gray-dead standing snags add significantly to fire intensity and spotting potential (i.e. bark pieces) when combined with a ladder-fuel understory. This type of fire behavior has been known to happen with-in minutes of the understory igniting. In addition, there have been instances of independent crown fire activity without surface fire in red phase.

Snowpack was above average across the Northern Rockies. Usually the Northern Rockies receive maximum snowpack beginning in December, this year the Northern Rockies we received the maximum in February and March. Basin averages in April were over 100% of normal range, by May 21 areas West and East of the Continental Divide showed a dramatic decrease in snowpack levels. Between mid-January and when the majority of our snowpack fell, lower elevations had no snow cover and as a result fuels began to dry out and light fuels began sprouting. From March to June, the lower elevations did not receive much precipitation.

As of 07/31/14 no drought was indicated by the Monthly Drought Outlook map from Climate Prediction Center for the Northern Rockies. The 08/05/14 US Drought Monitor indicates areas with Abnormally Dry Conditions for areas in Central ID, Westcentral MT and along the Montana/Idaho border south of Dillon and Ennis MT. An area bordering the Southside of the Missouri River north of Winifred/MT to where Hell Creek meets the Ft Peck Lake/MT is showing Short-Term Abnormally Dry conditions.

As of July 29-August 4, 2014, Departure from Average Greenness for the Northern Rockies is showing far Northeastern MT, Northwestern SD and Western ND as mostly 95-135% of average (average or greener than average). North ID, parts of far Northwestern MT, parts of far Eastern MT and Eastern ND. The biggest change from last week is the increased area that is >94% of average (drier than average), which covers Central ID, Westcentral and Southwest MT, Yellowstone National Park and East of the Continental Divide to the MT/ND border.

Until the Fall rains come in and stay or we start building our snowpack-both very unlikely for this time of year, the abundance of light, flashy fuels in the lower elevations up into the high elevations in some parts will continue to have a high potential for high intensity, high rates-of-spread fires. These fuels in most cases are completely cured and available to burn. As we enter the “normal” fire season the brushy fuels are curing rapidly with ninebark in a lot of low to mid elevation areas already cured-about two weeks ahead of schedule.

Outlook for this next week is calling for extremely hot/dry and windy conditions for the majority of the Northern Rockies. Fine fuels will continue to cure and dry at mid and high elevations. The majority of the lower elevation fine fuels have already cured. Any precipitation will knock these fuels back for maybe a 1 day or so but with predicted weather it won’t take long for these fuels to dry out again.

Fuel conditions in the 100-hr and 1000-hr fuels have become a major available fuel for carrying fire as the majority in the Northern Rockies dry out. These fuels are also adding higher intensities to recent fires that usually aren’t seen until mid-August. There are however areas in the Lochsa River area/ID and in Northwest MT where these heavy fuels are wet enough to be a barrier to spread.

Usually the 100-hr fuels have reached their minimums about early August and the 1000-hr fuels are a bit later around the middle to late August. Another thing to ponder is the majority of the Northern Rockies 100-hr and 1000-hr fuels are below the 2012 fire season levels, 2012 being a year where a lot of the heavy fuels were the main carrier of fire. Although we’ve had thunderstorm precipitation recently, overall this won’t affect the heavy fuels very much unless it is of long duration combined with cooler temperatures which isn’t predicted for the next week or so.

Along with the fine dead fuels, 10-hr, 100-hr and 1000-hr fuels, more ladder fuels are becoming a factor as these live fuels continue to dry out in these hot/dry full sunshine days. Look for easy transition from surface fires to crown fires where these fuels are involved.

Douglas-fir (DF), Engelmann spruce (ES), Lodgepole pine (LPP), Ponderosa pine (PP), Subalpine fir (SAF), Grand fir (GF), White Bark Pine (WBP), Western Larch (WL), Western Hemlock (WH), Western Red Cedar (WRC), Ceanothos (C), Creeping Juniper (CrJ), Common Juniper (CJ), Rocky Mtn Juniper (RMJ), Mountain Big Sagebrush (MBSb), Silver Sagebrush (SSb), Utah Sagebrush (USb), Wyoming Big Sagebrush (WBSb), Ninebark (N), Bluebunch Wheatgrass (BBWg), Grouse Whortleberry (GWB), Thin-leafed Huckleberry (TLHu), Kinnikinnick (K), Snowberry (SB), Utah Serviceberry (US), Beargrass (BG), Pinegrass (PG), Bitterbrush (BB), Idaho Fescue (IF), Elk Sedge (ESe), Duff (D).

Bitterroot NF MT, Smith Creek RAWS area – 07/31 1000-hr 11%, SB 79%, N 60%, K 105%, DF 169 %, PP 107% and LPP 104%
Bitterroot NF MT, Lost Trail - 07/29 1000-hr 8%, SAF 119% & LPP 114% & WBP 117%.
• Beaverhead-Deerlodge NF MT, Steel Cr – 07/29 1000-hr 7% trending down.
BLM-MT, Bliss – 08/01 1000-hr 9%, RMJ 102% & WSb 110% all trending down & PP 122% trending up.
BLM-MT, Canyon Creek – 08/01 1000-hr 5%, RMJ 99% & WSb 97% all trending down & PP 114% trending up.
BLM-MT, Lewistown Divide – 07/25 100-hr 9%, 1000-hr 11%, DF 142%, D 26%, PP 104%, SB 114% & BBWg 105% all trending down & Moss(Live) 9%.
BLM-MT, Little Rockies – 07/28 100-hr 8%, 1000-hr 7%, DF 97%, & PP 124% all trending down & LPP 119%.
BLM-MT, Missouri River Breaks – 07/28 100-hr 8%, D 14% & BBWg 39% all trending down, 1000-hr 9%, DF 137%, RMJ 98%, Moss(Live) 7% & PP 103% trending up & WBSb 67%.
BLM-MT, Slim Buttes/SD - 07/28 1000-hr 13%, SSb 173% trending down & PP 117% trending up.
BLM-MT, Steamboat – 08/01 PP 126% & SSb 111% both trending down.
Flathead NF MT, Blacktail West – 08/05 1000-hr 19% trending down & DF 233% trending up.
Flathead NF MT, Tally Lake North – 08/04 1000-hr 20% trending down, DF 151%, LPP 131% & ES 110% all trending up.
Flathead NF MT, Sixmile North – 08/05 1000-hr 16% & DF 176% both trending down.
Flathead NF MT, Tally Lake South – 8/04 1000-hr 13% trending down, DF 114% & LPP 113% both trending up.
Glacier NP MT, West Glacier – 8/04 1000-hr 23%, LPP 129%, PG 166% & US 129% all trending down.
Helena NF MT, Cement Divide – 07/29 1000-hr 14% trending down.
Helena NF MT, Deep Creek – 07/28 1000-hr 11%, RMJ 103% & MBSb 94% all trending down.
Helena NF MT, Grassy Mountain – 07/28 1000-hr 12% trending down.
Helena NF MT, Hall Creek – 07/29 1000-hr 11% trending down.
Helena NF MT, Indian Creek – 07/29 1000-hr 13%, RMJ 83% and MBSb 109% all trending down.
Helena NF MT, Jimtown – 08/01 1000-hr 11% & CJ 108% both trending down & PP 113%.
Helena NF MT, McCellan Creek – 08/01 1000-hr 11% trending down, DF 128% & PP 116% trending up.
Helena NF MT, Montana Gulch – 07/28 1000-hr 14% trending down.
Helena NF MT, Park Lake – 07/25 1000-hr 13%, CrJ 104% & LPP 108% all trending down.
Helena NF MT, Park Mine – 07/29 1000-hr 13% trending down.
Helena NF MT, Priest – 07/25 1000-hr 13% & LPP 83% both trending down.
Helena NF MT, Slim Sam – 07/29 1000-hr 11% trending down.
Idaho Panhandle NF ID, Big Creek South – 07/25 C 185%, DF 163% & GF 169% all trending down.
Idaho Panhandle NF ID, Brushy Mission Unit 19 – 08/04 PG 200% holding steady & TLH 223% trending up.
Idaho Panhandle NF ID, Cook’s Pass – 08/04 SAF 143% trending down, TLH 242% holding steady & BG 160% trending up.
Idaho Panhandle NF ID, McPherson – 07/25 C 171% & LPP 206%.
Idaho Panhandle NF ID, Twenty Mile – 07/25 WH 215% & WRC 158% both trending down & GF 197% trending up.
Kootenai NF MT, Libby Cache – 07/29 100-hr 9%, 1000-hr 15%, DF 90% & SB 147% all trending down, PG 154% trending up.
Lewis & Clark NF MT, Elko – 07/31 1000-hr 12%, DF 113% & K 118% all trending down.
Lewis & Clark NF MT- 07/29 Above 6000 ft North Aspect-1000 hr 18-24%, CJ 134-154%, LPP 123-129% & SAF 118% trending up. Above 6000 ft South Aspect-1000 hr 15-20% trending down, DF 122%, CJ 119-158%, LPP 133-135% & SAF 98% all trending up.
Lewis & Clark NF MT, S Fork Judith – 07/26 1000-hr 13% holding steady.
Lolo NF, Superior RD MT, Pardee – 07/30 100-hr 7% and 1000-hr 6% both trending down, & DF 137% trending up.
Miles City BLM MT, Knowlton – 08/06 1000-hr 16% & PP 123% trending up, RMJ 110% & WBSb 174% trending down.
Miles City BLM MT, Miller Creek – 08/04 1000-hr 6%, RMJ 94% & PP 108% all trending down & SSb 162% trending up.
MT, Ekalaka Hills #1 - 07/27 1000-hr 16%, RMJ 108%, PP 130% & SSb 161%.
MT, Long Pines #1 - 07/28 1000-hr 14%, SSb 153% trending down, RMJ 100% & PP 131% trending up.
Yellowstone NP WY, Grebe – 07/26 1000-hr 11%, PG 191%, ESe 131% & GWB 135% all trending down, 100-hr 15% & LPP 141% trending up.
Yellowstone NP WY, Sylvan – 07/26 100-hr 18%, 1000-hr 20%, PG 250%, ESe 182%, ES 105% & GWB 153% all trending down, D 138% & SAF 123% both trending up.
Yellowstone NP WY, Pebble Creek – 07/28 100-hr 11%, 1000-hr 13%, DF 128%, PG 209%, WBSb 136% & GWB 149% all trending down, D 58%, ESe 124% & ES 160% all trending up.
Yellowstone NP WY, Wraith Falls – 07/28 100-hr 9%, 1000-hr 9%, PG 114%, and WBSb 132% all trending down, LPP 122% trending up.

The number of measured 1000-hr and 100-hr fuels that are in the single digits should be a wake-up call that fuels around the geographic area are dry and will be receptive to carrying fire.

Fire Behavior Outlook:
***Due to a cool wet April and warm, dry early May and then a mix of cool/wet & hot/dry June/July there is a tremendous amount of light fuels-grasses-present at lower elevations that have cured. Mid and upper elevation grasses are curing quickly with the recent warm sunny days and the extremely high temperatures and single digit relative humidities predicted. These fuels are one of the Four Common Denominators for Fatal or Near-Fatal wildfires.***

Ah, mid-August and fire season is in full swing for the majority of the Northern Rockies. Sure there are areas where the wet thunderstorms are keeping a lid on activity but we’ve got a couple of weeks before we hit mid fire season so anything can happen. We’re also heading into our peak season for dry cold fronts. These fronts can increase winds just a tad bit that most folks won’t notice to full blown 60 mph+ winds for 6 or so hours causing your fire to become a real pain. Our biggest and most memorable fires here in the Northern Rockies have had a dry cold front influence, something to be heads-up for the next month and a half.

With the predicted weather conditions calling for a chance of wet/dry thunderstorms and a return to extremely hot/dry weather we’ll be seeing additional new starts and holdovers showing up over a wider area of the Northern Rockies. The areas to really watch are in Central ID and Western MT where we are already having new starts/holdovers almost daily.

Fuels from the light/flashy type up to through the 1000-hrs continue to cure and dry increasing the amount of available fuel to burn. Fires in the Western part of the area are transitioning quickly from your normal initial attack to fires that have been gaining acreage rapidly going beyond extended attack capabilities. With predicted weather look, for this to continue with surface fires having rapid rates of spread in the flashy/light fuels, high intensities, increased torching and spotting (up to a ¼ mile or so) with a higher potential for short/long duration crown runs. This has been especially true on slopes with wind on them-yep, basic fire behavior again. Rolling material, rollouts-whatever you want to call them are the usual suspects in spreading fires downslope. The 100-hr and most of the 1000-hr fuels are burning completely down or nearly so. In some of the narrower, shaded drainages, especially those found on north slopes, the heavy fuels have not been burning down because of the wetter conditions found there.

Of special concern are areas where beetle-killed stands occur with standing snags, red-needled dead trees or those that look green but are essentially dead-we call them “ignorant green” trees. These areas have seen an easy transition from a surface fire to crown fire in with little or no wind. Don’t be fooled by the color of the green needles.

We’re starting to see longer burn periods with fires burning well into the night and in areas where there are deep or multiple thermal belts forming, burning through the night into the next day. As basic fire behavior has taught us, those fuels that aren’t burning through the night are drying out further adding to mix of available fuels at a later time. This situation has most noticeable at higher elevations, where the fuels for the most part are becoming available to burn. If you’re taking weather, you’ll notice these thermal belt areas by the lower RH and higher temperatures-the big duh.

PSAs…NR10 Northern Front Range/NR12 Southcentral Montana & Yellowstone National Park/NR15 Northeast Montana & Northwest North Dakota/NR16 Southeast Montana & Southwest North Dakota/NR17 Northeastern North Dakota/NR18 Southeastern North Dakota
• Expect mostly LOW with some parts moving into MODERATE fire behavior for these areas with a mixture of cured/almost cured light fuels. The 100-hr and 1000-hr fuels are drying, in-between the wet/dry thunderstorms that have been cycling through this area as well as hot/dry periods. The far eastern part of MT, North Dakota and South Dakota are on the low end for fire behavior with the rest seeing their share of moderate fire behavior. With the predicted weather of extremely hot/dry conditions light fuels will continue to cure if they aren’t already and heavy fuels will keep drying. The possibility of wet thunderstorms, the light & 10-hr fuels will be the most affected by short precipitation events, knocking them back a bit until they dry out again. Any long duration event will affect the heavy fuels. As common sense tells us when you get lightning and precipitation expect holdovers to start showing up, increasing the amount initial attack with high rates of spread in the cured light fuels and low to moderate spread in the heavies. Any alignment of dry fuels, slope and winds will accelerate rates of spread on any fire. In areas where mountain pine beetle-killed stands with heavy dead/downed fuels occurs; there still exists a potential for quick transitions from surface to crown fires where surface fuels are dry enough to carry fire and overstory is dry enough to carry fire. Remember to monitor any thunderstorms and be prepared for lightning and any wind shifts from inflow winds to the storm or outflow winds from the storm.

PSAs…NR01 Northern Idaho Panhandle/NR02 Northwest Montana/NR07 Glacier National Park & Wilderness Areas/NR08 Southwest Montana-West of the Continental Divide/NR09 Big Hole-Southwest Montana-East of the Continental Divide/NR11 West Central Montana/NR13 Northern Plains & Missouri Breaks/NR14 Southern Montana (Big Horn/Powder River)
• Although there could be pockets of LOW fire behavior overall MODERATE fire behavior can be expected for these areas due the higher amount of cured/curing light fuels and curing brush fuels. The extremely hot/dry weather coming next week will definitely increase drying conditions. The mixture of wet & dry thunderstorms and the accompanying lightning will increase initial attacks and those pesky holdovers. The 100-hr and 1000-hr fuels are drying, and will become the fire carrier more and more as we move further into fire season. For the most part surface fire with some torching and maybe an occasional short crown run will be the fire behavior expected over the majority of the area. Spotting out to ¼ mile has been occurring recently in these areas so expect that to be the case this coming week. High rates of spread in the drier/lighter fuels with areas of mixture of timber expecting moderate spread with crown fires becoming more common, either short or long duration. Any alignment of dry fuels, slope and winds will accelerate rates of spread on any fire. Areas where mountain pine beetle-killed stands with heavy dead/downed fuels occurs; look for quick transitions from surface to crown fires where surface fuels are dry enough to carry fire and overstory is dry enough to carry fire. If any thunderstorms do occur, remember to monitor them and be prepared for lightning and any wind shifts from inflow winds to the storm or outflow winds from the storm.

PSAs…NR03 Southern Idaho Panhandle/NR04 Western Montana/NR05 Camas Prairie of Idaho/NR06 North Central Idaho & Bitterroot-Sapphire Mountains
• Expect MODERATE to ACTIVE fire behavior in these areas. These areas are consistently having a lot of initial attacks, extended attacks as well as increased number of large fires. The fuels are dry enough that higher intensity fires are becoming common. Fuels in these areas are either completely cured or really close to being cured. This next week will definitely be a rapid drying and curing of any grassy fuels with the extremely hot/dry conditions predicted. For the most part the lower to mid-elevations are burning although higher elevation ridges and slopes continue to see their share of fires. The light fuels and most of heavy fuels are burning, especially the 100-hr fuels. The 1000-hr fuels are for the most part completely burning down or close to it, either way they are burning enough to keep the intensities high and spreading through these fuels. Rates of spread could be high in areas with an abundance of light fuels and 10-hr fuels. Moderate to high rates of spread in timbered areas or areas with a heavy dead/downed fuel component. Torching, short and long duration crown runs have been observed in these areas so expect that continue and even increase with the predicted weather. Spotting up to ¼ mile and a bit further where the fires are on ridges has been observed. Hold overs continue to pop-up and become active in a short amount of time. Also peak burning conditions have been last in the afternoon into the night with smoke columns billowing until the sun gets off of them. Areas where mountain pine beetle-killed stands with heavy dead/downed fuels occurs; look for quick transitions from surface to crown fires where surface fuels are dry enough to carry fire and overstory is dry enough to carry fire. As always, remember that any alignment of dry fuels, slope and winds will accelerate rates of spread on any fire. Spot fires can occur especially when wind or rolling material (on slopes) is present. If any thunderstorms do occur, remember to monitor them and be prepared for lightning and any wind shifts from inflow winds to the storm or outflow winds from the storm.

Observed Fire Behavior:
This year is starting off with a couple of interesting fires both in region and to the south and west of us. These early fires were indicators of how fast the snowpack moisture disappeared during the hot, dry May and June. In May, the Lewistown area of MT had quite a few large fires in the grass/brush fuels and some timber, three were over 500 acres. In early June the Helena had a fire this week that got to 8 acres before being contained. The fire burned in ponderosa pine and grass. The forest used more resources than you would consider normal for the second week of June. Mid-June the Missoula RD/Lolo NF had a fire in slash got to around 6 or so acres.

Numerous initial attacks are occurring throughout the area with some extended attack and IMTs assigned. Most of the fires are reporting surface fuels carrying fire with 100-hr and 1000-hr fuels partially or completely consumed. Isolated torching, spotting and short/long crown runs are common, especially in the late afternoon-typical time when fire activity peaks for this time of year-yep basic expected fire behavior for here in the Northern Rockies. Spotting has been observed up to a ¼ mile. Also firewhirls, lasting for a while, have been observed on fires in Idaho this past week.



• BIG COUGAR, 08/08/14, Craig Mountain Area Office-ID Dept of Lands/ ID, located 24 miles S of Lewiston, ID. Fire is burning in timber and flashy fuels on steep terrain. Observed fire behavior has been active. The fire is burning in steep terrain and in flashy fuels. As of August 6th the fire had moved into Corral Creek to the north and slopped over Wapshilla Ridge and south to First Creek.
• GIFFORD, 08/08/14, Craig Mountain Area Office-ID Dept of Lands/ ID, located 15 miles NE of Lewiston, ID. Burning in grass. Running and spotting with 15 foot flame lengths.
• HIGH RANGE, 08/08/14, Craig Mountain Area Office-ID Dept of Lands/ ID, located 20 miles SW of Grangeville, ID. Fire is burning in timber (grass and understory) in the Getta Canyon which is extremely steep. Active fire behavior with group torching and short-range spotting reported. The fire is expected to continue burning along Getta Creek and associated drainages.
• JOHNSON BAR, 08/08/14, Nez Clearwater NF/ID, located 4 miles SE of Lowell, ID. Fire is burning in timber/grass. Active fire behavior with isolated torching and short runs burning throughout the night reported.
• RAIN, 08/08/14,
Nez Clearwater NF/ID, located 68 miles NW of Salmon, ID (Salmon River Canyon, Frank Church Wilderness). Fire is burning in timber/grass. Moderate spread rates observed.
• SEEPAY, 08/06/14,
Confederated Salish & Kootenai Tribe/Flathead Agency-BIA/MT, located 11 miles SSW of Dixon, MT. Fire is burning in timber with heavy dead/downed fuels and beetle-killed standing timber. Fire behavior observed on August 6th was an actively burning surface fire with single/group torching and short-duration crown runs.
• THOMPSON RIVER COMPLEX (Spruce Creek/Spruce 2/Koo-Koo Sint 1/2), 08/08/14,
Plains/Thompson Falls RD/Lolo NF/MT, located 6 Miles NE of Thompson Falls, MT. Fires are burning in steep/rugged terrain in timber with understory fuels. Fire behavior observed shows Spruce 2 burned into the Spruce Creek fire with active crown runs and spotting. The Koo-Koo-Sint fire continued moving to the northeast with group torching and short duration crown runs. Continued downslope backing with rolling debris on Koo-Koo-Sint fires. Fires expected to see continued growth to the northeast. Spruce fire expected to see group torching and short crown runs with the potential for spotting.
• UPPER MICA COMPLEX (Midnight Mica, Coddington 1 & 2), 08/08/14,
West St. Joe Area Office-ID Dept of Lands/ ID, located 15 miles E of St. Maries, ID. Fires are all burning in heavy logging slash, standing timber, plantations, and thinned stands. On 08/03 the Coddington 1 fire produced a fire whirl that lasted about 10 minutes. Observed fire behavior has been primary creeping and smoldering. Fire continues to hold in heavies and duff layer. During peak burning period some moderate fire behavior was observed. Recent fire behavior consisted of moderate activity with short-range spotting and potential to run due to heavy logging slash and large timber.
• Numerous Other Active Incidents
include fires from 0.1 to 167 acres, mostly in Monitor status.

For other fires in the Northern Rockies or the Nation, visit the InciWeb site or the MODIS Active Fire Mapping Program site.

Tell your story, send a picture! Share your observations with inquiring minds. Call (406) 329-4924 and contribute to improved firefighter awareness and safety.

See also Northern Rockies 7 Day Significant Fire Potential and 7 Day National Fire Potential Map.

See 6-10 and 8-14 day outlook charts located: 6-10 Day Prognosis, 8-14 Day Prognosis.


**Important Predictive Services Area Indices: (See Northern Rockies ERC, 1000-Hr and 100-Hr Charts) as of August 7, 2014

*-*NOTE: The Northern Rockies Predictive Service Areas have changed since 2013. PLEASE take note of the new areas and changes in the boundaries of others.*-*

>> REMEMBER most of the weather information comes from Sig’s and not single RAWS<<
      **Overall ones to watch are PSAs-02, 03, 04, 05 & 06****

Energy Release Component (ERC):
• PSA-06 is Above the 10% (90th percentile), Below the 2012 indices and trending up.
• PSAs-02, 05 are Approaching the 10% (90th percentile), Above the 2012 indices and trending up.
• PSA-03 is Approaching the 10% (90th percentile), Above the 2012 indices and trending flat.
• PSA-04 is Approaching the 10% (90th percentile), Below the 2012 indices and trending up.
• PSA-01 is Average, Above the 2012 indices and trending up.
• PSAs-07 is Average, tracking with the 2012 indices and trending up.
• PSA-08 is Average, Below the 2012 indices and trending up.
• PSAs-17 & 18 are Below Average, Below the 2012 indices and trending down.
• PSA-11 is Approaching Average, Below the 2012 indices and trending up.
• PSA-16 is Below Average, Above the 2012 indices and trending up.
• PSAs-09, 10, 12, 13, 14 & 15 are Below Average, Below the 2012 indices and trending up.

Heavy Fuel Moistures:
For 1000- hour fuels -

PSA-06 is Below the 10% (90th percentile), Below (drier) the 2012 indices and trending down.
• PSA-05 is Below the 10% (90th percentile), Below (drier) the 2012 indices and trending flat.

• PSA-08 is Below (drier) the 10% (90th percentile), Above (wetter) the 2012 indices trending down.
• PSA-02 is At the 10% (90th percentile), Below (drier) the 2012 indices trending flat.
• PSA-04 is At the 10% (90th percentile), tracking with the 2012 indices trending flat.
• PSA-07 is Approaching the 10% (90th percentile)/Average, Below (drier) the 2012 indices and trending down.
• PSAs-01 & 03 are Approaching the 10% (90th percentile), Below (drier) the 2012 indices and trending flat.
• PSAs-17 & 18 are Below (drier) Average, Below (drier) the 2012 indices and trending down.
• PSA-14 is Below (drier) Average, Above (wetter) the 2012 indices and trending up.
• PSA-11 is Below (drier) Average, Above (wetter) the 2012 indices and trending flat.
• PSA-09 is Average, Above (wetter) the 2012 indices and trending flat.
• PSA-10 is Above (wetter) Average, Above (wetter) the 2012 indices and trending down.
• PSAs-13, 15 & 16 are Above (wetter) Average, Above (wetter) the 2012 indices and trending flat.
• PSA-12 is Above (wetter)Average, Above (wetter) the 2012 indices and trending up.


For 100- hour fuels -

• PSAs-02, 04, 07 are Below (drier) the 10% (90th percentile), Below (drier) the 2012 indices and trending down.
• PSAs-03 & 05 are Below (drier) the 10% (90th percentile), Below (drier) the 2012 indices and trending up.
• PSA-06 is At the 10% (90th percentile), Above (wetter) the 2012 indices and trending down.
• PSA-01 is Approaching the 10% (90th percentile), Below (drier) the 2012 indices and trending flat.
• PSA-17 is Below (drier) Average, Below (drier) the 2012 indices and trending flat.
• PSAs-08, 10 & 11 are Below (drier) Average, Above (wetter) the 2012 indices and trending down.
• PSA-18 is Below (drier) Average, Above (wetter) the 2012 indices and trending flat.
• PSAs-12, 13, 14, 15 & 16 are Above (wetter) Average, Above (wetter) the 2012 indices and trending down.
• PSA-09 is Above (wetter) Average, Above (wetter) the 2012 indices and trending flat.


(Graphic) Map of Northern Rockies Predictive Service Areas - Click on PSA to view ERC, 1000-hr and 100-hr graphs
(Click on PSA for specific ERC, 1000-hr and 100-hr Fuel Moisture graphs)


**Departure From Average Greenness   **Percent of Average Precipitation
(Click maps to enlarge)
Departure from Average Greeness   Percent of Average Precipitation for Last  12 Months

PSA - NR16 Eastern North Dakota PSA - NR16 Eastern North Dakota PSA - NR16 Eastern North Dakota PSA - NR15 Southeast Montana & Southwest North Dakota PSA - NR14 Northeast Montana & Northwest North Dakota PSA - NR04 Camas Prairie of Idaho PSA - NR06 Glacier National Park & Wilderness Areas PSA - NR09 Northern Front Range PSA - NR10 West Central Montana PSA - NR13 Southern Montana (Big Horn / Powder River) PSA - NR12 Southeast Montana / Southwest North Dakota PSA - NR03 Western Montana PSA - NR11 South Central Montana & Yellowstone National Park PSA - NR08 Southwest Montana, East of Continental Divide PSA - NR07 Southwest Montana, West of Continental Divide PSA - NR05 North Central Idaho & Bitterroot / Sapphire Mountains PSA - NR02 Southern Idaho Panhandle Idaho PSA - NR01 Northern Idaho Panhandle / Northwest Montana


Validation and Feedback:

Please contact the NRCC Predictive Services Group at 329-4880 to provide us feedback on the accuracy of these forecasts. Your observations about general fuel conditions and observed fire behavior help us validate the accuracy of our forecasts. Our bottom line and the reason we are here is to provide for the safety of firefighters in field.

BASE ALL ACTIONS ON CURRENT AND EXPECTED FIRE BEHAVIOR!

 
 

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