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  FIRE BEHAVIOR OUTLOOK
 

Northern Rockies Fire Behavior Outlook
(click on any graphic in this product to enlarge it)

Valid for: August 1-8, 2014
                  (Revised 8/1)
Date/Time Issued: 08/01/14 @1430 MDT

Next Update: as warranted

Signed: Risa Lange-Navarro, FBAN

This is a general fire behavior outlook covering the entire Northern Rockies Geographic Area.  It is designed to provide wildland fire managers with an overall view of fire behavior potential and to help wildland firefighters with the fire order "initiate all actions based on current and expected fire behavior".  Firefighters must use onsite observations and spot weather forecasts to calculate site-specific fire behavior for individual wildland fires.

Fire Weather Summary: NOTE: Fire Weather summary was done on the date issued. Always check fire weather forecasts daily for any changes.


**Red Flag Warnings/Fire Weather Watches: None currently posted. But check daily for any changes. Be aware there may be Hazardous Weather Outlooks posted that can affect fire behavior also.

From the NR 7-day outlook…Hot weather will continue through the weekend and well into next week, tempered at times by cloud cover from convection as S-SW flow around the 4-corners high remains in place. Enough monsoon moisture in the flow will continue isolated-scattered thunderstorms from the Divide westward through the weekend, expanding further east into central MT. The thunderstorms in N ID and western/central MT the next several days will be mainly wet. A strong surge of moisture today/Saturday will increase thunderstorm activity from what was seen yet.

Models are also showing a weak upper low moving north over western MT next Tuesday/Wednesday which would bring even more widespread convection and possibly heavy rains with it. Temperatures will remain in the 90s-low 100s in the lower elevations of N ID and western MT when there is enough clearing...with min RHs only 8-18%. Mid-slopes/ridges in areas not receiving any thunderstorm moisture will also continue to see poor night-time RH recoveries, only to 25-40%, the next several days. On days with increased convection temps will be 5-8 degrees cooler and RHs a little higher. Central/eastern MT will be slightly cooler with slightly higher RHs than further west. ND will see temps in the 80s with isolated-scattered wet thunderstorms and min RHs in the 20s-low 30s the next few days.

The highly convective pattern over N ID and western MT will slowly diminish by Wednesday/Thursday as the weak upper low moves east and upper ridging builds in from the west, returning hot/dry weather west of the Divide. This will lead to greater thunderstorm potential for eastern MT/ND then though...but these will be quite wet. So while most of the expected convection will be wet over the coming days we are expecting a lot of lightning activity and thus a significant increase in fire activity this weekend and through the coming week.


*****
For complete fire weather watch and warning details and fire weather forecasts see: Western Region Fire Weather

**National Current Weather Map/National Forecast NFDRS Fire Danger:

National Current Weather Map:  
National Forecast NFDRS Fire Danger:
(Click maps to enlarge)
Current Weather Looping Map
 
National Fire Danfer for Tomorrow

See the MesoWest Regional Surface Map for Northern Rockies area 24 hour precipitation amounts.

See national precipitation outlooks at U.S. Today's Precipitation Outlook, U.S. Third and Fourth Day Precipitation Outlook , U.S. 5 Day Precipitation Outlook, and U.S. 14 Day Precipitation Outlook.

See 5 Day Weather Forecasts and Loops at
NWS Northern Rockies Graphical Weather Forecasts.


State of the Fuels:

• See observed values and other information in both the Northern Rockies Fire & Fuels Status and the National Fuel Moisture database. Add your trapline to the mix!

SPECIAL NOTE - Beetle-killed stands have increased dramatically over the past few years. Most observations are in the ponderosa pine and lodgepole pine stands throughout the Northern Rockies. Some research (Canada & USA) has shown foliar fuel moisture contents of <40% combined with low RHs has the potential for plume-dominated crown fire behavior. Recent gray-dead standing snags add significantly to fire intensity and spotting potential (i.e. bark pieces) when combined with a ladder-fuel understory. This type of fire behavior has been known to happen with-in minutes of the understory igniting. In addition, there have been instances of independent crown fire activity without surface fire in red phase.

Snowpack was above average across the Northern Rockies. Usually the Northern Rockies receive maximum snowpack beginning in December, this year the Northern Rockies we received the maximum in February and March. Basin averages in April were over 100% of normal range, by May 21 areas West and East of the Continental Divide showed a dramatic decrease in snowpack levels. Between mid-January and when the majority of our snowpack fell, lower elevations had no snow cover and as a result fuels began to dry out and light fuels began sprouting. From March to June, the lower elevations did not receive much precipitation.

As of 07/18/14 drought was indicated by the Monthly Drought Outlook map from Climate Prediction Center for the Northern Rockies. The areas identified with a drought persisting or intensifying include Central ID, Camas Prairie ID, Southwest MT and Southcentral MT east of Paradise Valley to Billings/MT. The 07/29/14 US Drought Monitor indicates more areas with Abnormally Dry Conditions than last time. Those areas include Central ID, Westcentral MT, along the Montana/Idaho border south of Dillon and Ennis MT and an area bordering the Southside of the Missouri River north of Winifred/MT to where Hell Creek meets the Ft Peck Lake/MT.

As for Greenness July 22-28, 2014, Departure from Average Greenness for the Northern Rockies is showing a large are from the Canadian border south along the Rocky Mountain Front/MT down through Yellowstone National Park/WY, Southeastern MT, most of ND and Northeastern SD as mostly 95-135% of average (average or greener than average). Central/North ID, Western MT, Northcentral MT and far Eastern ND as <115% of average (about average or drier than average).

The abundance of light, flashy fuels in the lower elevations have created a strong potential for high intensity, high rates-of-spread fires. Areas throughout the Northern Rockies lost their lower elevation snowpack in January giving the light fuels a two month head start on the typical growing season. In February and March heavy snow pushed back the light fuels growing season. However, the snowpack melted rapidly and restarted the growing and in some cases the curing of those fuels during May and June. Now in July the runoff in complete and the light fuels are completely cured or are curing as we speak.

Last Fall the heavy fuels went into the winter months drier than usual. By mid-Spring these fuels were dry and in some cases completely consumed during prescribed burning season. Since then they have been in a yoyo situation with drying and wetting storms of varying duration. The longer duration storms did bump up the heavy fuels fuel moisture to above normal but are now in a downward trend for most of the Northern Rockies.

Continued hot/dry and windy conditions for the majority of the Northern Rockies will continue to cure and dry fine fuels at mid and high elevations. The majority of the lower elevation light fuels have already cured. Any precipitation will knock these fuels back for maybe a ½ day or so but with predicted weather it won’t take long for these fuels to dry out again.

The 100-hr and 1000-hr fuels are drying out and have become a major available fuel for carrying fire. These fuels are also adding higher intensities to recent fires that usually aren’t seen until mid-August. The 100-hr fuels usually reach their minimums about early August and the 1000-hr fuels are a bit later around the middle to late August. Another thing to ponder is the majority of the Northern Rockies 100-hr and 1000-hr fuels are below the 2012 fire season levels, 2012 being a year where a lot of the heavy fuels were the main carrier of fire. Any thunderstorm precipitation won’t affect the heavy fuels very much unless it is of long duration combined with cooler temperatures.

Along with the fine dead fuels, 10-hr, 100-hr and 1000-hr fuels, more ladder fuels are becoming a factor as these live fuels continue to dry out in these hot/dry full sunshine days. Look for easy transition from surface fires to crown fires where these fuels are involved.

Douglas-fir (DF), Engelmann spruce (ES), Lodgepole pine (LPP), Ponderosa pine (PP), Subalpine fir (SAF), Grand fir (GF), White Bark Pine (WBP), Western Larch (WL), Western Hemlock (WH), Western Red Cedar (WRC), Ceanothos (C), Creeping Juniper (CrJ), Common Juniper (CJ), Rocky Mtn Juniper (RMJ), Mountain Big Sagebrush (MBSb), Silver Sagebrush (SSb), Utah Sagebrush (USb), Wyoming Big Sagebrush (WBSb), Ninebark (N), Bluebunch Wheatgrass (BBWg), Grouse Whortleberry (GWB), Thin-leafed Huckleberry (TLHu), Kinnikinnick (K), Snowberry (SB), Beargrass (BG), Pinegrass (PG), Bitterbrush (BB), Idaho Fescue (IF), Elk Sedge (ESe), Duff (D).

  • Bitterroot NF MT, Tepee - 7/29 1000-hr 8%, SAF 119% & LPP 114% & WBP 117%.
  • Bitterroot NF MT, Tepee - 7/17 1000-hr 10%, DF 94% & SB 145% all trending down, PP 111% trending up.
  • Beaverhead-Deerlodge NF MT, Steel Cr – 07/29 1000-hr 7% trending down.
  • BLM-MT, Miller Creek - 7/24 1000-hr 11%, RMJ 94, SSb 156% trending down & PP 136% trending up.
  • BLM-MT, Slim Buttes - 7/28 1000-hr 13%, SSb 173% trending down & PP 117% trending up.
  • Gallatin NF MT, Hebgen lake – 07/19 LPP 16% trending up.
  • Helena NF MT, Cement Divide – 07/29 1000-hr 14% trending down.
  • Helena NF MT, Deep Creek – 07/28 1000-hr 11%, RMJ 103% & MBSb 94% all trending down.
  • Helena NF MT, Grassy Mountain – 07/28 1000-hr 12% trending down.
  • Helena NF MT, Hall Creek – 07/29 1000-hr 11% trending down.
  • Helena NF MT, Indian Creek – 07/29 1000-hr 13%, RMJ 83% and MBSb 109% all trending down.
  • Helena NF MT, Jimtown – 07/18 1000-hr 18%, CJ 109% & PP 75% all trending down.
  • Helena NF MT, McCellan Creek – 07/18 1000-hr 12% & PP 75% both trending down, DF 114% trending up.
  • Helena NF MT, Montana Gulch – 07/18 1000-hr 14% trending down.
  • Helena NF MT, Park Lake – 07/25 1000-hr 13%, CrJ 104% & LPP 108% all trending down.
  • Helena NF MT, Park Mine – 07/29 1000-hr 13% trending down.
  • Helena NF MT, Priest – 07/25 1000-hr 13% & LPP 83% both trending down.
  • Helena NF MT, Slim Sam – 07/29 1000-hr 11% trending down.
  • Idaho Panhandle NF ID, Bismark – 07/17 DF 162%, TLHu 156% & PG 200%.
  • Idaho Panhandle NF ID, Big Creek South – 07/25 C 185%, DF 163% & GF 169% all trending down.
  • Idaho Panhandle NF ID, McPherson – 07/25 C 171% & LPP 206%.
  • Idaho Panhandle NF ID, Meyers Saddle – 07/23 N 165% trending down & DF 185% trending up.
  • Kootenai NF MT, Libby Cache – 07/29 100-hr 9%, 1000-hr 15%, DF 90% & SB 147% all trending down, PG 154% trending up.
  • Kootenai NF MT, Swede Mtn – 07/18 100-hr 9% & SB 156% both trending down, 1000-hr 15% trending up, DF 96% & PG 155%.
  • Lolo NF, Superior RD MT, Pardee – 07/22 100-hr 9%, 1000-hr 8%, DF 123% & N 200-310%.
  • Lolo NF, Ninemile RD MT, C3 – 07/22 100-hr 15% trending up, 1000-hr 16% & SB 126% both trending down.
  • Lewis & Clark NF MT, Benchmark – 07/22 1000-hr 15% trending down, K 166% & LPP 179% both trending up.
  • Lewis & Clark NF MT- 07/29 Above 6000 ft North Aspect-1000 hr 18-24%, CJ 134-154%, LPP 123-129% & SAF 118% trending up. Above 6000 ft South Aspect-1000 hr 15-20% trending down, DF 122%, CJ 119-158%, LPP 133-135% & SAF 98% all trending up.
  • Lewis & Clark NF MT, S Fork Judith – 07/26 1000-hr 13% holding steady.
  • Miles City BLM MT, Miller Creek - 07/24 1000-hr 11%, RMJ 94% & WBSb 156% all trending downward, PP 136% trending upward.
  • MT, Ekalaka Hills #1 - 7/27 1000-hr 16%, RMJ 108%, PP 130% & SSb 161%.
  • MT, Long Pines #1 - 7/28 1000-hr 14%, SSb 153% trending down, RMJ 100% & PP 131% trending up.
  • Yellowstone NP WY, Grebe – 07/26 1000-hr 11%, PG 191%, WBSb 194%, ESe 131% & GWB 135% all trending down, 100-hr 15%, D 11% & LPP 141% both trending up.
  • Yellowstone NP WY, Sylvan – 07/26 100-hr 18%, 1000-hr 20%, DF 128%, PG 250%, ES 105% & GWB 153% all trending down, D 138% & SAF 123% both trending up.
  • Yellowstone NP WY, Pebble Creek– 07/28 100-hr 11%, 1000-hr 13%, DF 128%, PG 209%, WBSb 136% & GWB 149% all trending down, D 58%, ESe 124% & ES 160% both trending up.
  • Yellowstone NP WY, Wraith Falls– 07/28 100-hr 9%, 1000-hr 9%, PG 114% and WBSb 132% all trending down, LPP 122 % trending up.

Fire Behavior Outlook:
***Due to a cool wet April and warm, dry early May and then a mix of cool/wet & hot/dry June/July there is a tremendous amount of light fuels-grasses-present at lower elevations that have cured. Some upper elevation grasses are curing quickly with the high temperatures and low humidities predicted. These fuels are one of the Four Common Denominators for Fatal or Near-Fatal wildfires.***

-high elevation fuels dry
-cigarette burns
Fire season is alive and well here in the Northern Rockies. Even though we’ve had some wet thunderstorms bumping through the fuels are dry enough that we’re beginning to see fires gain some acreage more quickly than a week or so ago. One thing to remember is from August to say mid-September is also our “season” for Dry, Cold Fronts to pass through the area. The majority of our large memorable fires made significant runs with the high wind speeds associated with those fronts.

With the predicted weather conditions calling for a continuation of hot/dry weather with a chance of thunderstorms, those fuels out there will be drier than ever. With that possibility of thunderstorms both wet/dry and lots of lightning, we’ll be seeing more new starts and holdovers showing up over a wider area of the Northern Rockies.

The other weather situation we’ve been seeing for the last week or so and will probably continue is the poor Relative humidity recovery at mid to upper elevations only up to 40% at night. That means the surface fuels, especially, will get no moisture “reset” and so will be dry going into the start of a new burn day. This situation has drastically increased the availability of higher elevation fuels to burn readily

Those 100-hr and 1000-hr fuels haven’t gone away so combining those fuels and the increased availability of the lighter fuels at most elevations we could see fire spread and intensities picking up as we move deeper into the fire season. In areas that have available fuel to burn, anticipate surface fires to be the main type of fire with and increased possibility of torching, spotting and short crown runs. This has been especially true on slopes with wind on them-basic fire behavior. Rapid rates of spread in fine/dead fuels can be expected, yes-even those “green” looking fuels. Heavy fuels will continue to burn with high intensities with some areas seeing complete combustion of these fuels. The potential for spot fires is increasing both close-in and up to a ¼ mile away with little or no wind; expect them further out than ¼ mile with any wind as well as from rolling material creating spots below the main fire. In addition, it has been an easy transition from a surface fire to crown fire in bug-killed fuels with little or no wind. And as always expect fire behavior to pick-up when wind, dry fuels and slope become aligned.

PSAs…NR10 Northern Front Range/NR12 Southcentral Montana & Yellowstone National Park/ NR15 Northeast Montana & Northwest North Dakota/ NR16 Southeast Montana & Southwest North Dakota/NR17 Northeastern North Dakota/NR18 Southeastern North Dakota
• Expect LOW to MODERATE fire behavior for these areas due to the mixture of cured and curing light fuels. The far eastern part of MT, North Dakota and South Dakota being on the low end for fire behavior. Predicted weather of hot/dry conditions will continue to cure out the light fuels and dry the heavy fuels. With the possibility of wet thunderstorms, the light & 10-hr fuels will be the most affected by short precipitation events, knocking them back a bit until they dry out again. If the precipitation event is a long duration event then the heavy fuels will be affected. With the high amount of lightning predicted across these areas expect holdovers to start showing up, thus increasing the amount initial attack with high rates of spread in the cured light fuels and low to moderate spread in the heavies. Any alignment of dry fuels, slope and winds will accelerate rates of spread on any fire. In areas where mountain pine beetle-killed stands with heavy dead/downed fuels occurs; there still exists a potential for quick transitions from surface to crown fires where surface fuels are dry enough to carry fire and overstory is dry enough to carry fire. Remember to monitor any thunderstorms and be prepared for lightning and any wind shifts from inflow winds to the storm or outflow winds from the storm.


PSAs…NR01 Northern Idaho Panhandle/NR02 Northwest Montana/NR07 Glacier National Park & Wilderness Areas/NR08 Southwest Montana-West of the Continental Divide/NR09 Big Hole-Southwest Montana-East of the Continental Divide/NR11 West Central Montana/NR14 Southern Montana (Big Horn/Powder River)
• There could be pockets of LOW fire behavior but overall expect mostly MODERATE fire behavior for these areas due the higher amount of cured/curing light fuels and curing brush fuels. The predicted hot/dry weather continuing into next week should increase this drying. With the predicted high possibility of a mixture of wet & dry thunderstorms and the associated lightning look for the incidence of initial attacks to increase as well as any holdovers from passing storms. For the most part surface fire with some torching and maybe an occasional short crown run will be the fire behavior expected over the majority of the area. Spotting out to ¼ mile has been occurring recently in these areas so expect that to be the case this coming week. High rates of spread in the drier/lighter fuels with areas of mixture of timber expecting mostly moderate spread. As basic fire behavior teaches us, any alignment of dry fuels, slope and winds will accelerate rates of spread on any fire. Areas where mountain pine beetle-killed stands with heavy dead/downed fuels occurs; look for quick transitions from surface to crown fires where surface fuels are dry enough to carry fire and overstory is dry enough to carry fire. If any thunderstorms do occur, remember to monitor them and be prepared for lightning and any wind shifts from inflow winds to the storm or outflow winds from the storm.


PSAs… NR03 Southern Idaho Panhandle/NR04 Western Montana/NR05 Camas Prairie of Idaho/NR06 North Central Idaho & Bitterroot-Sapphire Mountains/NR13 Northern Plains & Missouri Breaks
• Expect MODERATE to ACTIVE fire behavior in these areas. These areas have been increasing in the amount of initial attack and the intensities of the fires. Fuels in these areas are either completely cured or really close to being cured. This next week will definitely be a rapid drying and curing of any grassy fuels with predicted hotter/drier conditions. For the most part the lower to mid-elevations are burning although some higher elevation ridges have also seen their share of fires. The light fuels and most of heavy fuels are burning, especially the 100-hr fuels. However the 1000-hr fuels are not completely burning down but are burning enough to keep the intensities high and spreading through these fuels. Rates of spread could be high in areas with an abundance of light fuels and 10-hr fuels. Moderate to high rates of spread in timbered areas or areas with a heavy dead/downed fuel component. Torching and short crown runs have been observed in these areas so expect that continue and even increase in hot/dry conditions. Spotting up to ¼ mile and a bit further where the fires are on ridges has been observed. Hold overs continue to pop-up and become active in a short amount of time. Areas where mountain pine beetle-killed stands with heavy dead/downed fuels occurs; look for quick transitions from surface to crown fires where surface fuels are dry enough to carry fire and overstory is dry enough to carry fire. Sounding like a broken record but basic fire behavior teaches us that any alignment of dry fuels, slope and winds will accelerate rates of spread on any fire. Spot fires can occur especially when wind or rolling material (on slopes) is present. If any thunderstorms do occur, remember to monitor them and be prepared for lightning and any wind shifts from inflow winds to the storm or outflow winds from the storm.

Observed Fire Behavior:
This year is starting off with a couple of interesting fires both in region and to the south and west of us. These early fires were indicators of how fast the snowpack moisture disappeared during the hot, dry May and June.

  • In May, the Lewistown area of MT had quite a few large fires in the grass/brush fuels and some timber, three were over 500 acres.
  • In early June the Helena had a fire this week that got to 8 acres before being contained. The fire burned in ponderosa pine and grass. The forest used more resources than you would consider normal for the second week of June.
  • Mid-June the Missoula RD/Lolo NF had a fire in slash got to around 6 or so acres.

Numerous Initial attacks throughout the area with some fires going into extended attack, most reporting fires carried by light fuels and 100-hr fuels. Short crown runs are becoming common, especially in the late afternoon-typical time when fire activity peaks for this time of year. Spotting has been observed up to a ¼ mile.

East Helmer, 7/31/14, Priest Lake RD/Idaho Panhandle NF/ID, located 9 miles W of Upper Priest Lake, ID. The fire is burning on steep terrain in a 20 yr old burn area with Subalpine Fir, dead/downed logs and numerous dead standing trees. Current fire behavior is surface fire burning in the surface fuels and dead/downed logs.
Hay, 7/31/14, Glacier View RD/Flathead NF/ID, located NW of Polebridge, MT. The fire is burning in heavy timber on steep/rugged terrain. The fire behavior is single and group tree torching with occasional spotting.
Lodge Grass Basin, 7/30/14, Crow Reservation-BIA/MT, located 26½ miles SW of Lodge Grass, MT. The fire was burning in the steep/rugged Bighorn Mountains in dead/down Sub-alpine fir, Ponderosa pine and shrub fuels. Observed fire behavior smoldering.
Lost Horse, 8/01/14 Darby RD/Bitterroot NF/MT, located 10 miles southwest of Hamilton, MT. The fire is burning in Sub-alpine fir in extremely steep and rugged terrain, near the top of the ridge in the Bitterroot Mountains. With recent cloud cover from thunderstorms fire behavior has been minimal. The fire is creeping through large rock screes and steep boulder fields and there is single and group torching of trees with rolling material common.


For other fires in the Northern Rockies or the Nation, visit the InciWeb site or the MODIS Active Fire Mapping Program
site.


Tell your story, send a picture! Share your observations with inquiring minds. Call (406) 329-4924 and contribute to improved firefighter awareness and safety.

See also Northern Rockies 7 Day Significant Fire Potential and 7 Day National Fire Potential Map.

See 6-10 and 8-14 day outlook charts located: 6-10 Day Prognosis, 8-14 Day Prognosis.


**Important Predictive Services Area Indices: (See Northern Rockies ERC, 1000-Hr and 100-Hr Charts) as of July 31, 2014

*-*NOTE: The Northern Rockies Predictive Service Areas have changed since 2013. PLEASE take note of the new areas and changes in the boundaries of others.*-*

>> REMEMBER most of the weather information comes from Sig’s and not single RAWS<<
      **Overall ones to watch are PSAs-03, 04, 05, 06, 07 & 08**

Energy Release Component (ERC):

  • PSA-06 is Above the 10% (90th percentile), Above the 2012 indices and trending down.
  • PSAs-08 & 13 are Above the 10% (90th percentile), Below the 2012 indices and trending up.
  • PSAs-03 & 05 are Approaching the 10% (90th percentile), Above the 2012 indices and trending up.
  • PSAs-04 & 07 are Approaching the 10% (90th percentile), tracking with the 2012 indices and trending up.
  • PSAs-01 & 02 are Approaching the 10% (90th percentile), Below the 2012 indices and trending up.
  • PSA-12 is Above Average, Below the 2012 indices and trending up.
  • PSA-18 is Average, tracking with the 2012 indices and trending up.
  • PSA-14 is Average, Below the 2012 indices and trending up.
  • PSA-16 is Below Average, Above the 2012 indices and trending up.
  • PSAs-11, 15 & 17 are Below Average, Below the 2012 indices and trending up.
  • PSAs-09 & 10 are Below Average, Below the 2012 indices and trending down.

Heavy Fuel Moistures:
For 1000- hour fuels -

  • PSA-06 is Below the 10% (90th percentile), Below (drier) the 2012 indices and trending flat.
  • PSA-08 is Below the 10% (90th percentile), Above (wetter) the 2012 indices trending down.
  • PSAs-02, 03, 04, 05 & 07 are Approaching the 10% (90th percentile), Below (drier) the 2012 indices and trending down.
  • PSA-09 is Approaching the 10% (90th percentile), Below (drier) the 2012 indices and trending up.
  • PSA-10 is Approaching the 10% (90th percentile), Above (wetter) the 2012 indices and trending down.
  • PSA-12 is Below Average, Above (wetter) the 2012 indices and trending down.
  • PSA-01 is Average, Below (drier) the 2012 indices and trending flat.
  • PSA-18 is Average, tracking with the 2012 indices and trending down.
  • PSAs-11, 13, 15 & 16 are Average, Above (wetter) the 2012 indices and trending down.
  • PSAs-14 & 17 are Above Average (wetter), Above (wetter) the 2012 indices and trending flat.


    For 100- hour fuels -
  • PSA-05 is Below the 3% (97th percentile), Below (drier) the 2012 indices, Approaching Record Minimums and trending flat.
  • PSA-03 is Below the 3% (97th percentile), Below (drier) the 2012 indices and trending flat.
  • PSAs-11 & 13 are Approaching the 3% (97th percentile), Below (drier) the 2012 indices and trending down.
  • PSA-04 is Approaching the 3% (97th percentile), Below (drier) the 2012 indices and trending flat.
  • PSA-07 is Below the 10% (90th percentile), tracking with the 2012 indices trending down.
  • PSA-01 is Below the 10% (90th percentile), Below (drier) the 2012 indices and trending flat.
  • PSA-08 is Below the 10% (90th percentile), Below (drier) the 2012 indices and trending up.
  • PSA-06 is Below the 10% (90th percentile), tracking with the 2012 indices and trending up.
  • PSA-14 is Below the 10% (90th percentile), Above (wetter) the 2012 indices trending down.
  • PSA-02 is At the 10% (90th percentile), Below (drier) the 2012 indices and trending down.
  • PSAs-10 & 12 are Approaching the 10% (90th percentile), tracking with the 2012 indices and trending down.
  • PSA-18 is Below Average (drier), Below (drier) the 2012 indices and trending down.
  • PSA-17 is Average, Below (drier) the 2012 indices and trending down.
  • PSA-09 is Average, Above (drier) the 2012 indices and trending up.
  • PSA-16 is Approaching Average, Above (wetter) the 2012 indices and trending downward.
  • PSA-15 is Above (wetter) Average, Above (wetter) the 2012 indices and trending down.

(Graphic) Map of Northern Rockies Predictive Service Areas - Click on PSA to view ERC, 1000-hr and 100-hr graphs
(Click on PSA for specific ERC, 1000-hr and 100-hr Fuel Moisture graphs)


**Departure From Average Greenness   **Percent of Average Precipitation
(Click maps to enlarge)
Departure from Average Greeness   Percent of Average Precipitation for Last  12 Months

PSA - NR16 Eastern North Dakota PSA - NR16 Eastern North Dakota PSA - NR16 Eastern North Dakota PSA - NR15 Southeast Montana & Southwest North Dakota PSA - NR14 Northeast Montana & Northwest North Dakota PSA - NR04 Camas Prairie of Idaho PSA - NR06 Glacier National Park & Wilderness Areas PSA - NR09 Northern Front Range PSA - NR10 West Central Montana PSA - NR13 Southern Montana (Big Horn / Powder River) PSA - NR12 Southeast Montana / Southwest North Dakota PSA - NR03 Western Montana PSA - NR11 South Central Montana & Yellowstone National Park PSA - NR08 Southwest Montana, East of Continental Divide PSA - NR07 Southwest Montana, West of Continental Divide PSA - NR05 North Central Idaho & Bitterroot / Sapphire Mountains PSA - NR02 Southern Idaho Panhandle Idaho PSA - NR01 Northern Idaho Panhandle / Northwest Montana


Validation and Feedback:

Please contact the NRCC Predictive Services Group at 329-4880 to provide us feedback on the accuracy of these forecasts. Your observations about general fuel conditions and observed fire behavior help us validate the accuracy of our forecasts. Our bottom line and the reason we are here is to provide for the safety of firefighters in field.

BASE ALL ACTIONS ON CURRENT AND EXPECTED FIRE BEHAVIOR!

 
 

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