Northern Rockies Fire Behavior Outlook
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This is a general fire behavior outlook covering the entire Northern Rockies Geographic Area.  It is designed to provide wildland fire managers with an overall view of fire behavior potential and to help wildland firefighters with the fire order "initiate all actions based on current and expected fire behavior".  Firefighters must use onsite observations and spot weather forecasts to calculate site-specific fire behavior for individual wildland fires.

Fire Weather Summary:

NOTE: Fire Weather summary was done on the date issued. Always check fire weather forecasts daily for any changes.

**Red Flag Warnings/Fire Weather Watches: Be aware there may be Hazardous Weather Outlooks posted that can affect fire behavior also. No Warnings or Watches currently issued.

The relatively quiet pattern will continue for the next week as a weak WNW flow continues to dominate the weather pattern. The only weather system to note is the passage of a weak dry front across the ID Panhandle on Friday afternoon and evening. The passage of this front could bring a few sprinkles but the real impact will be that it will allow for the smoke to vent out for a little while. Westerly winds at the ridgetop level may become breezy. However, afternoon humidity levels in the 30-40% range may offset impacts from the slightly breezy conditions.

Friday night and Saturday...the front will move across MT. Breezy winds will be possible Saturday afternoon across Central MT but again rhs should help offset potential increases in fire danger.

Other than the passage of this front...not much stands out over the next 6 days. Expect continued inversion development at night followed by some mixing out during the afternoons on the mid-slopes and ridges which will allow for somewhat active burn periods. Gone from the outlooks are the days of single digit RHs.

From Tuesday on…Models continue to struggle with the weather from Tuesday of next week onward. Right now, not thinking that W MT and ID will be impacted by the system that may come down from the N. Probably an E MT and ND event, if it does show up.

• *****For complete fire weather watch and warning details and fire weather forecasts see: Western Region Fire Weather

**National Current Weather Map/National Forecast NFDRS Fire Danger:

National Current Weather Map:		National Forecast NFDRS Fire Danger:
(Click maps to enlarge)

See the MesoWest Regional Surface Map for Northern Rockies area 24 hour precipitation amounts.

See national precipitation outlooks at U.S. Today's Precipitation Outlook, U.S. Third and Fourth Day Precipitation Outlook , U.S. 5 Day Precipitation Outlook, and U.S. 14 Day Precipitation Outlook.

See 5 Day Weather Forecasts and Loops at NWS Northern Rockies Graphical Weather Forecasts.

State of the Fuels:

• Northern Rockies Fuels and Fire Behavior Advisory

• See observed values and other information in both the Northern Rockies Fuels Status and the National Fuel Moisture database. Add your trapline to the mix! We need to see more units conducting fuels monitoring. There is only a handful for the entire geographic area!!!

• SPECIAL NOTE - Beetle-killed stands have increased dramatically over the past few years. Most observations are in the Ponderosa pine and Lodgepole pine stands throughout the Northern Rockies. Some research (Canada & USA) has shown foliar fuel moisture contents of <40% combined with low RHs has the potential for plume-dominated crown fire behavior. Recent gray-dead standing snags add significantly to fire intensity and spotting potential (i.e. bark pieces) when combined with a ladder-fuel understory. This type of fire behavior has been known to happen with-in minutes of the understory igniting. In addition, there have been instances of independent crown fire activity without surface fire in red phase. One good hint is if the temperature is above 75°, the foliage is in sunlight and the relative humidity is less than 20% RH expect rapid transition from surface to crown fire to occur.

Also of note is the impact Spruce budworm has taken on young fir trees, stressing them out then killing them adding to “dry” ladder fuels in the timber area if the Northern Rockies.

• SPECIAL NOTE - Snowpack/Spring precipitation in the Northern Rockies this past winter/spring has been inconsistent throughout the area. Majority of the fine, flashy fuel growth was not compacted by the 2011-2012 snowpack. This has left light flashy fuels left over from 2011 combined with this years’ cured and green-but dry light flashy fuels creating conditions for high intensity, high rates-of-spread fires. This situation is especially evident in the valleys and foothills.

• So here’s the deal, until we can get a long duration precipitation event over the Northern Rockies we’re stuck in the dry weather and dry fuels However, there is a possible glimmer of hope next week with a system moving in from Canada with cooler air and precipitation. We’ll have to wait and see. The fuels in north ID and the far northwest corner of MT are way behind the rest of the Northern Rockies when it comes to dry fuels. Given we’re going into October they may or may not catch-up at all.

• Foliar moisture continues to drop whether phenologically or drought related, although there are some fuels showing signs of foliar moisture bottoming out for this year. Either way this continues to increase the availability of these fuels into the mix. As mentioned numerous times this spring and summer, bug-killed stands continue to be a problem with their low or non-existent fuel moisture and expansive coverage in the central and southern areas of MT. Resistance to control still increasing even though we’re moving into fall conditions of cool nights and shorter daylight hrs.

• With no change moisture-wise the 10hr, 100hr and 1000hr fuels continue to dry and dry and dry. Overall in the higher elevations on all aspects these fuels are the prime carriers of fire however look for this to decrease given historical decreased burning time in these areas due to cooler temperatures and higher relative humidities common at this time of year. With what we had this fire season and the prediction of an El Niño winter the dry heavy fuel situation could set us up for another active fire season next year, more on that at a later date-say next year.

• The live foliar moisture in brush and timber, as mentioned earlier, continues to drop due to the shorter days, overnight freezes and drought-like conditions causing these fuels to become brittle to the touch. More and more brush and trees are changing color as we enter the fall season and early October. Monitor your fuels and fuel moistures. (HINT: Are you taking fuels samples? Are you reporting them in the National Fuels Monitoring Database?)

• The Relative Greenness maps (Sept 18-24), continues to show moderately drier (less green) to extremely dry fuel situations for the majority of MT, all of ND, northwest SD and the Camas & Palouse Prairies of central ID. Normal or greener than normal areas include the far southwest corner of Yellowstone NP, with parts of the ID Panhandle and parts of northwestern MT. There is however an area of extreme dryness southwest of Flathead Lake in the Hot Springs, MT vicinity and pretty much the whole Bitterroot River Valley, including side drainages, that continues to show as very dry with pockets of extreme.

• Current US Drought Monitor (Sept 25) maps show almost all of the Northern Rockies under an Abnormally Dry to Severe drought condition, covering most of MT and all of ND. There is an area of Extreme Drought in the center of MT and a finger into the southern border of MT/WY. ID Panhandle and northwestern MT appear to have normal conditions for this time of year though both areas are curing and drying out. The southern half, and now southwest MT and along the Rocky Mtn Front of MT as well as far eastern part of ND are in both a short and long term drought impact. With no major widespread, long-duration precipitation event in the future expect these conditions to continue spreading northward and westward over the geographic area. Outlook (Sept 20-Dec 31) calls for “Persistence” in the drought to continue over the southern and eastern part of the Northern Rockies. The rest of the areas have now been classified in the “Drought development likely” category. Not good news as we move into the fall and then winter seasons. Both seasons have a big impact on the heavy fuels fuel moisture.

• Live Fuel moistures (measured) reported last 14 days:
Douglas-fir (DF), Lodgepole Pine (LPP), Ponderosa Pine (PP), Sub-alpine Fir (SAF), Engelmann Spruce (ES), Red Alder (RA), Thinleaf Huckleberry (TLH), Common Juniper (CJ), Rocky Mtn Juniper (RMJun), Kinnikinnick (K), Pinegrass (PGr), Mtn Big Sagebrush (Mtn BSb), Silver Sagebrush (SSb ), Wyoming Big Sagebrush (WBSb), Mountain Snowberry (MS), Western Snowberry (WS), Serviceberry (Sb), Utah Serviceberry (USb), Bluebunch Wheatgrass (BWGr)

• Absaroka Range, Southcentral MT – 1000hr 10%, DF 123%, Duff 13%.

• Central MT- Big Belt Mtns -1000hr 6-11%, RMJ 94-99%, Mtn BSb 69-89%; Elkhorn Mtns -1000hr 7-9%, RMJ 75%, Mtn BSb 61%.

• Flathead NF (Salish & Swan Mtns)/West Glacier NP - 1000hr 8-17%, LPP 104-129%, DF 97-147%, ES 97% PGr 161%, USb 135%.

• Western Lolo NF - 9/22 Fuels conditions have remained relatively static over the course of the two weeks +. Higher elevations and northerly aspects above 5,500 feet look relatively green. However, dead fuels are readily available for consumption, and duff layers have dried out to depths of 12-16 inches. On mid/lower elevations and southerly aspects, limited moisture and warm/dry weather have the ERCs (66-82) and 1000 hr fuel moistures (7-9%) at the 96th percentile. Mid/lower elevations and southerly aspects have live woody fuel moistures ranging from 70-74% and ninebark leaves in the majority of locations are red and brittle. Herbaceous fuel moistures on warmer sites have shifted to fine dead fuel loadings. Fine fuel moistures are 4-5%. The 100 HR and 1000 HR fuels are burning readily and have fuel moistures at 6-9%. Fire danger is Extreme on warm and dry sites. Higher elevations and northerly aspects above 5,500 feet, the potential for starts has increased significantly and fires should be expected to make runs when winds and slope align, expect active group torching and medium range spotting. Fires established in heavy fuel loads will be very resistant to control. Warm and dry sites have reached a critical stage where any ignition source has the potential to start a fire and control problems should be expected. Fire growth potential is high and rapid rates of spread, surface fire flame lengths of 4+ feet, active group torching, potential crowning, and medium to long range spotting should be expected. This is a critical stage where extreme fire behavior or large fire growth could be expected if winds and slope align.

• Southeastern MT – 1000hr 8%, PP 118%, RMJ 85%, WBSb 128%.

• Yellowstone National Park - 100hr 7-12%, 1000hr 6-12%, LPP 116-120%, DF 118%, SAF 111%, ES 105-107%, WBSb 75-77%, PGr 78-172%, Elk Sedge 84-119%, Whortleberry 101-109%, Duff 17-51%.

Fire Behavior Outlook:
***The fine, flashy fuels were not compacted by the 2011/2012 snowpack. These 2011 fluffy, fine fuels added to the 2012 fluffy, fine fuels have been a major carrier of fires throughout the geographic area. REMEMBER, these fuels are one of the Four Common Denominators for Fatal or Near-Fatal wildfires.***

For ALL areas: This year has had more wind events and storms with high winds than usual. Be heads up to changes in the weather on your incidents. In addition, we’ve experienced more dry cold fronts than usual this year. Now that we’re into early fall, climatologically the dry cold front season usually ends by the first week of October. During this time of year the chances of lightning will diminish greatly, not that we can’t have a lightning event it’s just becomes rarer and rarer.

Although the big fires days have decreased in the last week or so there are still plenty of opportunities. Fire behavior this year has been very much fuel driven. We’re now heading into October with maybe, maybe some precipitation predicted late next week. Until any appreciable precipitation occurs fires will continue to have a very high potential of growing rapidly in size. What fuels are out there are most likely available to burn, maybe some live fuels in the northwest corner of the geographic area aren’t there yet but with cooler nights these fuels may become available due to frost kill. Rapid growth on existing fires as well as kicking up any undetected fires is occurring or has a very high potential to occur. Without rapid initial attack responses most fires will continue to have high probabilities of growing in size rapidly and exhibit torching and spotting to varying degrees, especially in the lighter, grassy fuels. Short & long range spotting opportunities will continue with any predicted breezy conditions and dry fuels. Holdovers are still popping up, some up to a week after the ignition.

Recent poor relative humidity recovery and very strong & deep thermal belt (inversion) development have moderately lately, but when they do exist they will increase the opportunity for fires to burn intensely throughout the nighttime hours. Watch for any inversions breaks which will cause intensities of fires to rapidly increase and have the high potential of rapid runs during the night and then especially once the sun comes up causing the inversion to rapidly clear out of the fire area. Add any kind of winds and these situations could be explosive. Most areas are seeing inversion breaks anywhere from mid-morning to late afternoon. One thing that will increase the chances of lingering inversions is the decreasing sun angle we are getting now that the Autumn Equinox has passed.

With cold nights, any uncured (if there are any left) light fuels are very susceptible to frost kill, a weather condition common now through the end of the year. We continue to see higher elevation RAWS stations and low valley areas with several hours of below freezing temperatures, common during this time of year. In addition to these fuels, all other live fuels are also susceptible to “radiant heat curing”. If located close enough to radiant heat from the fire, it can be quickly cure the fuels.

Smoky conditions have been the norm the last few weeks and continue to influence fire behavior throughout the Northern Rockies particularly in the mountainous areas. Fires that are shaded-out by smoke from fires upwind usually see an increase the relative humidity in the fire area thus decreasing fire activity. Smoky conditions can also make it almost impossible to see what kind of weather is coming as well as hide spot fires or any new fires. These situations can change rapidly due to weather conditions.

Majority of the RAWS stations are showing a drop in their ERC’s. Although a majority are at the extreme levels, almost all are setting new maximums for this time of year. Indices are just now starting to level off and some are beginning to drop with decreased temperatures and shorter daylight hours. Moisture is the only thing that will really drop the numbers.

Northcentral Idaho/Southwest Montana/Big Hole Montana/Southern Montana/Central Montana/Glacier National Park/ Glacier National Park/Northern Rockies Front Range Montana /Yellowstone National Park/Southeastern Montana/North Dakota/Northwest South Dakota:
Without any wide spread, long duration precipitation events predicted in the next week or so the majority of the Northern Rockies should continue to experience ACTIVE to EXTREME fire behavior when winds, high temperatures, low relative humidities, aspect and slope combine. Light/flashy fuels, brush, bug-killed stands and heavy dead/downed fuels seem to be the main carriers for surface fire although with recent frosts brush fuels are adding to the mix. Transitions from surface to crown fires are common, especially in beetle-killed stands, and thick timber stands with heavy dead/downed fuels occur. Any predicted dry fronts will continue to worsen the already extreme conditions here in the Northern Rockies. Short & long duration crown fire runs are common place with these dry fuel conditions. Spotting distances could reach over a mile, given the right conditions. These conditions can surprise many fire fighters causing them to re-evaluate their tactics as it relates to fire behavior beyond ground crew capabilities. Early fall conditions of overnight frosts have “dried” any remaining light fuels at most elevations. Expect MODERATE to ACTIVE fire behavior in areas where any appreciable precipitation has occurred.

Northern Panhandle/Far Northwest Montana:
The longer the Season ending event holds off the more chances these areas have of getting even a little bit of fire season. However, depending on what occurs in the next week or so will determine the fire activity in these areas. Predicted drier conditions and some winds will increase opportunities for initial attacks. Upper elevations green fuels with high live foliar moistures are hanging in there; but like September, October is also known for its frosts which could frost-cure fuels making them available for burning rather quickly during any warm/dry periods. Fall conditions, for the most part, should create LOW to MODERATE fire behavior.

Observed Fire Behavior:
Recently the high pressure ridge that had taken up residence over the Northern Rockies shifted to the east. The inversions were not as deep as they had been there in the Central ID area on the McGuire fire.

Until any long-term moisture occurs to slow the influence of the currently dry and cured light/fluffy/flashy fuels, sagebrush and timber we will continue to experience rapid rates-of-spread intensified with any winds, well yeah... Heavy dead/down fuels are burning and at all elevations as well as contributing to common place individual or group tree torching in the surrounding stands of timber. Transitions from surface fires to crown fires have been dramatic and surprisingly quick, with or without the wind. This is especially true in the bug-killed timber stands and in areas that have experienced deep thermal belts. These transitions are occurring during the late evening into mid-morning where these thermal belts extremely strong. Overnight intense burning in general seems to be common in these areas too. Major burning periods have been significantly decreasing with most observed from 1400-1800 hrs; longer if the area is situated in a deep thermal belt, shorter if the fire loses direct sunlight due to shorter daylight hours in general.

Although valleys, mostly in central ID and the mountains of MT have been continually smoked in other areas with strong inversions have observed the higher elevation parts of the fire-above the inversion-continue to become active as soon as the sun hits it. However as the inversion mixes out there is somewhat of a lull in the fire activity at higher elevation as the inversion mixes out at the lower elevation and shades the fire activity at higher elevation. This lull is occurring until the inversion is completely mixed out of the area. In some ways this creates two burning periods for active fire above the inversions-one first thing in the morning since it’s above the inversion and the second at the usual time around 1200hrs or when the inversion mixes out of the area. Watch for inversions to linger longer with the shorter daylight hours.

Instances of short/long duration crown runs with little or no wind, as well as spotting distances up to a mile or more especially with wind (basic fire behavior: wind + ignited embers=short to long spotting distances) have been observed on several fires. Besides the dryness of the fuels, predicted breezy weather will increase the occurrences of spotting for the next week or so. Another observed condition in bug-hit timber is single/group tree torching from the interior lofting spots well beyond control lines. Make sure all your fire personnel are aware and monitor these conditions.

With the continuing activity from large fires to the west of us, smoke from these fires has decreased fire activity on fires in our area as long as the general flow is westerly. This is not only affecting the relative humidity and temperatures, it is also making it difficult to detect spot fires and/or new starts as well as any aviation activities.

CONDON MTN, Flathead NF, located 5 Miles Northeast of Condon, MT. Burning in timber, litter and understory with a high density of dead standing white bark pine. On 9/19 the fire was highly active and growing with an active crown fire with long range spotting. The fire was spotting 1/4 mile into and making runs in the Smith Creek drainage. The fire also grew towards Smith Creek Pass; however it did not reached the pass. The fire also backed down the west face of the mountain between Condon and Smith Creeks, with occasional single tree torching occurring, visible from Condon. On 9/26, after the inversion lifted around noon, an increase in fire behavior was observed, including flanking, backing, and short uphill runs with isolated group tree torching. Firing operations helped maintain an even line of fire. Current fire behavior consists flanking, backing, and short uphill runs with isolated group tree torching usually after the inversion lifts by mid-afternoon.

COTTONWOOD CREEK, Dakota Prairie Grasslands, located 30 miles SSW of Watford City, ND. Currently the fire is burning in juniper, sage and short grass. Minimal behavior with creeping and single tree torching reported.

CYGNET COMPEX (Beach 2, Cygnet, Dewdrop 2 & Range), Yellowstone National Park-NPS, located throughout the Park in WY. Fires are burning in timber and grass. The potential for fire activity has increased due to very dry vegetation combined with warmer temperatures, low humidity and strong winds. Fires are actively burning, especially during the afternoon and early evening.

EAGLE CREEK, Northern Cheyenne Agency-BIA, located 13 miles SW of Lame Deer, MT. Fire is burning in timber and grass. When this fire started on 9/22 fire behavior was wind driven fire with running and spotting. Current fire behavior consists of smoldering and creeping.

EAST FORK, Helena NF, located 25 miles WSW of Augusta, MT in the Scapegoat Wilderness. The fire is burning in dense timber stands of contiguous sub-alpine fir, with numerous snags in and around the fire area on steep terrain. Recent fire was smoldering and isolated torching within the interior.

ELBOW PASS COMPLEX (Bar, Elbow Pass, Rapid Creek & Triple Divide fires), Lewis and Clark and Flathead NFs, located 25 miles WSW of Augusta, MT. Rapid Creek, Bar and Elbow Pass have merged. Burning in mixed green timber with bug-killed red and dead standing timber with forest litter and understory fuels. Recent fire activity consists of widespread single tree torching and some group torching in areas with remaining heat. Short uphill runs possible where slope, winds, fuels align.

FALLS POINT, Lolo NF, located 27 miles E of Seeley Lake, MT. Burning in timber, understory with heavy dead/down fuels. When reported 7/31, fire was crowning, running with 100-200 ft. flame lengths The fire is currently burning in an area affected by the Canyon Creek Fire in 1988, the Cabin Creek Fire in 2001 and the Conger Creek Fire in 2007. The regeneration created by these fires and their high live fuel moistures are acting as a governor on fire growth. Recent fire behavior consisted of 9/24 actively burning ground fuels in a small patch on a western flank of the fire. The fire has grown around 70 acres this past week, most of it being on that western or southwestern aspect. It continues to skunk around in the litter and brush, doing a nice underburn, working its way down a seasonal stream drainage to the south and west. It has not made any big runs or torched many trees in the last week for that matter. On 9/26 The Falls Point fire continues to burn in ground fuels on the southwestern aspect of the fire. The fire has grown around 05 acres in the past week, most spread being in this southwestern vicinity. Overall the fire continues to skunk around in the litter and brush, working its way down the more sun drenched slopes. It has not made any runs or torched many trees in the last week. On the NE flank the fire is within 50 yards of Driftwood Lake and it does not appear that the fire will have enough activity to go around or across the Driftwood drainage.

MCGUIRE COMPLEX (Herman and McGuire), Nez Perce NF, located 5 miles west of Dixie, Idaho. Fire is burning in heavy timber (sub alpine fir & lodgepole pine) with a lot of dead and down fuel. The lodgepole pine stands contain beetle-killed timber. The fires are burning in heavy timber of sub-alpine fir and lodgepole pine that contains extensive beetle-killed stands. On 9/16 the fire made a significant run on the east flank. On 9/25 all areas of the fires picked up in activity after the inversion lifted at around 1100. Single and group tree torching with short range spotting were observed on the west perimeter west of Sinker Mountain. Fire spread in this area was approximately 1/4 mile towards the east. Increased activity was also noted in the Orogrande Summit and Lake Creek Drainage areas. Fire behavior is generally low in the morning; activity picks up around 1100 when the inversion lifts. Peak fire activity 9/27 will be between noon and 5:00 p.m. The fire will primarily creep and smolder; in the mixed-conifer forests, fire behavior might consist of single- or group-tree torching and short-range spotting.

MILLIE, Yellowstone RD/Gallatin NF, located 20 miles south of Bozeman, MT. Fire is burning in timber (litter and understory), subalpine fir, and mixed conifer, with large amount of bug kill. Recent fire behavior is reported to be smoldering and creeping.

MUSTANG, Salmon-Challis NF/Bitterroot NF, located north of the Main Salmon River, from Sabe Cr on the westside to North Fork, ID on the eastside. This fire stretches over 60 air miles from east to west. It has also burned onto the Bitterroot NF in the upper reaches of the West Fork Bitterroot River and Hughes Creek in MT. The fire is burning in fuel model 1, 2, 8 and 10. At lower elevations the fire is burning in Ponderosa pine with grass and brush understory. At higher elevations, lodgepole pine with heavy dead and down with extensive red-needle bug kill. On 9/18 uphill runs with flame lengths of 12-15 ft., Rates of spread of 1/4 mile per hour and group tree torching observed during firing operations on Division P were observed with smoldering and creeping interior burning was observed elsewhere on the fire. On 9/24, approximately .05 inches of rain received throughout the fire which drastically subdued fire activity during the burn period. Recent fire behavior consisted of minimal spread with some isolated torching and some interior spots burning with occasional tree torching. There were no visible large columns of smoke. The most active area of the fire is located in the northwest section between the Mustang and Porcupine fires however, only minimal fire activity was observed there. Thick smoke in the drainages prevented any confirmation of the two fires joining.

PINE CREEK, Central Land Office-MT DNRC, located 9 miles S of Livingston, MT. Fire is burning in fuel model 10 timber (litter and understory), heavy dead standing and down with gray-stage beetle kill trees. Current fire behavior consists of creeping and smoldering.

PORCUPINE COMPLEX, Nez Perce NF, located 25 miles east of Elk City, ID. Fire is burning in fuel model 10 Timber (litter and understory), heavy timber and some areas of bug killed trees. Fire behavior on 9/24 included frequent single tree torching with short range spotting in a few isolated areas. Widespread smoke and cloudy conditions provided shade over the fire for most of the day. These factors combined with higher humidity, lower temperature, and light, intermittent rain kept fire activity low. Current fire behavior has been generally low in the morning; activity usually picks up around 1100 when the inversion lifts. Peak fire activity has been between noon and 5:00 p.m. The fire has primarily crept and smoldered; in the mixed-conifer forests, fire behavior might consist of single- or group-tree torching and short-range spotting. The most active area has been in the Sinker Mountain area, with some spread expected into the wilderness on the west flank.

POWELL SBW (Powell SBW West Complex, Powell SBW East Complex, Bell Point, Mocus and Eagle-Robin fires), Clearwater NF, located 37 miles SW of Lolo, MT in the Selway Bitterroot Wilderness. Fire is burning in timber (litter and understory). On 9/26 fire behavior consisted of light winds, higher humidity’s and cooler temperatures due to a storm system that passed to the south aided in regulating fire growth over the weekend. Fire activity consisted of isolated torching and backing fire.

SAWTOOTH, Bitterroot NF, located 7 miles WSW of Hamilton, MT. Fire is burning in grass & timber (lodgepole pine) and high sub-alpine ecosystem. Starting on 9/9 through 9/10 dry cold front winds hit the fire with speeds of up to 40mph with gusts 50+ mph causing the fire to grow rapidly in size to about 4000 ac and spreading east toward the mouth of the Sawtooth drainage, across the Bitterroot Face and slopping into Canyon Cr. Current fire behavior consists smoldering and creeping with slight growth on west side toward wilderness. Fire is still confined to Sawtooth Canyon drainage.

SHEEP, Nez Perce NF, located .5 miles E of Lucille, ID. Fire is burning in timber, brush, grass and heavy fuels. Overnight and into the morning of 9/9 extreme fire behavior was reported with an estimated 7 mile run to the northeast over John Day Mtn, through John Day drainage and into the Slate Cr drainage. Current fire activity consists of moderate behavior with single and group tree torching, short runs, and short range spotting. Active surface fire observed on the warmer exposed sites throughout fire.

WALL CREEK, Flathead NF, located 30 miles E of Swan Lake, MT in the Bob Marshall Wilderness Area. Fire is burning in heavy timber, mostly Subalpine-Fir and Spruce. Fire behavior has mostly been a surface fire with isolated, single tree torching. On 9/14 there was increased fire behavior with the addition of spotting and short crown fire runs. Evening of 9/15 and 9/16 most active burning in the high elevation. Fire burned around Christopher Lake basin and the bowl below the Wall Creek cliffs. 9/20- Moderate fire behavior with single tree torching and about 100 acres of fire growth.

WEDGE CREEK, Seeley Lake RD/Lolo NF, located 16 miles E of Seeley Lake, MT. Fire is burning in steep terrain and a mixture of mixed conifer and sub alpine fir with a heavy component of dead and down materials with intermittent bug-killed trees. These fuels are discontinuous and separated by rocky scree slopes and barren areas. Overall throughout the Wedge Creek fire area, the fuels are at critically low fuel moisture levels and the forest is experiencing historically dry conditions for this time of the year. Fuel conditions are changing. Areas with grass and shrubs that were normally retarding fire growth due to high live fuel moistures are now starting to cure to much lower fuel moistures due to freezing temperatures at night and early morning hours. This transition has been slow in taking place as several of the weather stations around the area have shown some frost events but not for long enough periods of time to totally transition the live fuels to dormant or cured stages. Once this occurs, fire behavior will become more active in areas with these fuel types. On 9/26 an aerial reconnaissance of the Wedge Creek fire area showed the main body of fire activity is in the Falls Creek drainage south of Conger Point and on the southeast slopes of Wedge Creek. Wedge Creek is displaying more activity than it has recently and will require more close surveillance. In Hayden Creek the fire activity was sporadic with no indicators of uniform or vastly increased fire spread. Overall, the fire has grown about 20-30 acres. The current fire behavior pattern is rolling debris consisting of logs or pinecones ignite heavy fuels below burn up hill creating torching and large flame lengths and then spotting continues. The fire activity in Hayden Creek is slowly working down out of the bowl in fingers and spots. The fire also continues to be active in the bottom of the drainage at the head end of Wedge Creek where the fire started.

WHITE HORSE, Confederated Salish & Kootenai/Flathead Agency-BIA, located 10 miles E of Arlee, MT. Fire is burning timber on steep slopes. On 9/15-16 RH recoveries only made it to 18% and with that the fire became quite active overnight into the next morning with short runs and spotting. Fire behavior consists of smoldering and creeping.

WILSON, Southern Land Office-MT DNRC, located 8 miles SE of Roundup, MT. Fire currently burning in timber and grass. On 9/22 when the fire started the fire quickly grew in tinder-dry fuels. Most recent fire behavior consisted of moderate activity with torching, creeping and smoldering.

Approximately thirty three other incidents/complexes ranging from less than 1 ac to approximately 12,000 ac throughout the Northern Rockies with the majority of them in and around the Selway-Bitterroot Wilderness and Bob Marshall Wilderness. They are in FSPC=Full Suppression (Perimeter Control), PZP=Point or Zone Protection (Limited Perimeter Control) or CON=Confine Strategy.

For other fires in the Northern Rockies or the Nation, visit the InciWeb site or the MODIS Active Fire Mapping Program site.

• Tell your story, send a picture! Share your observations with inquiring minds. Call (406) 329-4924 and contribute to improved firefighter awareness and safety.

See also Northern Rockies 7 Day Significant Fire Potential and 7 Day National Fire Potential Map.

See 6-10 and 8-14 day outlook charts located: 6-10 Day Prognosis, 8-14 Day Prognosis.

**Important Predictive Services Area Indices: (See Northern Rockies ERC, 1000-Hr and 100-Hr Charts) as of September 26, 2012

>> REMEMBER most of the weather information comes from Sig’s and not single RAWS<<
      **Overall ones to watch are PSAs 07, 11, 12 & 13**

Interesting comparison between 2000 and 2012 is in 2000 by the first week of September the ERCs, 1000hr and 100hr had all began to recover and ERCs trended downward and 1000hr and 100hr fuels were increasing in moisture content by NFDRS standards. This year we may have hit the peaks in ERCs and the bottoming out for the 1000hr and 100hr fuels as depicted by the Indices.

Energy Release Component (ERC): Most PSA’s showing a downward trend; maybe they’ve hit their peak for season. PSA 10 is showing a leveling out and PSA 12 is actually showing an upward trend…go figure.
• PSAs-07, 10, 11, 12 & 13 are Above the 97th percentile, Above the 2000 indices AND Setting new MAX’s.
• PSAs-03 & 08 are Above the 90th percentile, Above the 2000 indices AND Setting new MAX’s.
• PSA-04 is Above the 90th percentile, Above the 2000 indices AND Tracking with the MAX.
• PSA-02 is Above the 90th percentile, Above the 2000 indices AND Approaching the MAX.
• PSAs-05 & 09 are Above the 90th percentile AND Above the 2000 indices.
• PSA-01 is Above Average AND Above the 2000.
• PSA-06 is Above Average AND Tracking with the 2000.

Heavy Fuel Moistures:
For 1000- hour fuels - Most PSA’s showing a bottoming out and upward trend for season. PSAs 04, 07, 10, 11 & 12 are showing a leveling out and PSA 13 is actually showing a continued downward trend
• PSAs-03, 04, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10, 11, 12 & 13 are Below (drier than) the 3% (97th percentile), Below (drier than) the 2000 indices AND Setting new MAX’s.
• PSAs-02 & 05 are At the 3% (97th percentile), Below (drier than) the 2000 indices AND Setting new MAX’s.
• PSA-01 is At the 10% (90th percentile), Below (drier than) the 2000 indices AND Approaching the MAX.

For 100- hour fuels - Most PSA’s showing a bottoming out and upward trend for season. PSAs 07, 10, 12 & 13 are showing a leveling out trend
• PSA-07 is At the 3% (97th percentile), Below (drier than) the 2000 indices AND Setting new MAX’s.
• PSA-12 is Below (drier than) the 3% (97th percentile), Below (drier than) the 2000 indices AND Setting new MAX’s.
• PSAs-08, 11 & 13 are At the 10% (90th percentile), Below (drier than) the 2000 indices AND Setting new MAX’s.
• PSA-10 is Below (drier than) the 10% (90th percentile), Below (drier than) the 2000 indices AND Setting new MAX’s.
• PSAs-04, 05 are Below (drier than) Average AND Approaching the 2000 indices.
• PSAs-01, 02, 03 & 09 are Below (drier than) Average AND Below (drier than) the 2000 indices.
• PSA-06 is Below (drier than) Average AND Above (wetter than)the 2000 indices.

(Click on PSA for specific ERC, 1000-hr and 100-hr Fuel Moisture graphs)

**Departure From Average Greenness		**Percent of Average Precipitation
(Click maps to enlarge)

Validation and Feedback:

Please contact the the NRCC Predictive Services Group at 329-4880 to provide us feedback on the accuracy of these forecasts. Your observations about general fuel conditions and observed fire behavior help us validate the accuracy of our forecasts. Our bottom line and the reason we are here is to provide for the safety of firefighters in field.

BASE ALL ACTIONS ON CURRENT AND EXPECTED FIRE BEHAVIOR!