Teton Interagency Area Outlooks
- 2013 Wildland Fire Outlook - Teton Interagency Fire (2 mb PDF)
- July 2013 Wildland Fire Outlook - Teton Interagency Fire (2 mb PDF).
- August 2013 Wildland Fire Outlook - Teton Interagency Fire (1 mb PDF).
- September 2013 Wildland Fire Outlook - Teton Interagency Fire (1 mb PDF).
- See tabbed links below for online updates
Eastern Great Basin Outlooks
- 7-Day Significant Fire Potential Outlook (EGBCC)
- EGBCC Fuels and Fire Danger Outlooks
- National Interagency Fire Center Monthly Assessment (pdf)
- EGB Fire Potential Briefing (webcast)
North American Seasonal Assessment
- Precip-NW US
- Long Range WX
- Fire Activity
Summary (updated September 2, 2013)
(Note: the tabs to the right provide supporting graphs and details for the Current Outlook.)
Heat spells and long-term drought continued to impact the West through August, including the TIDC area. Summer conditions that were warmer and drier than normal were moderated by monsoon moisture that periodically reached the TIDC area from the Southwest. While the Moose weather station received 50% of normal summer precipitation, most areas of the TIDC received widely scattered rains, with a number of RAWS sites receiving nearly an inch a rain in a day. The effect of this periodic moisture and higher humidity was a below average fire season to date, with normal fire activity forecast for the remaining fire season.
- FUELS > Live fuels exhibit late-season curing, with moderation due to variable precipitation. Fuels in sagebrush remain at critical fuel trigger levels.
- FUELS > Fuel moistures in fine dead fuels (dead grass/thatch and twig-size) and heavy downed logs were both moderated by August precipitation. Fine dead fuel will likely return to critical levels while the heavier dead fuels will require a substantial fall drying trend to reach critical levels
- WEATHER > Scattered thunderstorms in August brought variable moisture and lightning-ignited fires. The timing and amount of precipitation moderated fire spread in most cases.
- WEATHER > The September outlook for above-normal temperatures and equal chances of below normal, above normal or normal precipitation may extend fire activity past the season-slowing event typically experienced in late August or early September.
- STAFFING > Fire activity nationally has moderated after a very active August, when a national preparedness level of 5 was reached for the first time since 2008.
- SUMMARY > The September regional outlook calls for warmer than normal temperatures and normal precipitation, which will likely support normal fire activity in the TIDC. Out of season conditions are expected to be within the normal range.
Fuel moisture sampling of live and dead fuels began in mid-May in Grand Teton National Park. Initial sampling and trends indicate an early to normal green up. Based on comparison to long-term monitoring data, most fuels are trending between normal and drier than normal for the late summer. Live woody-sagebrush is trending the driest with fuel moistures nearing the driest 10 percent for September 1 samples.
Northwest US, Prior 90 Days, departure from normal precipitation (automatically updated).
The 90-day Climate Anomaly map for Wyoming shows warmer than normal average temperatures, ranging from 0-3 degrees F warmer than normal for the TIDC area, with a trend toward warmer temperatures in the southern and eastern TIDC area.
The U.S. Drought Monitor as of August 27 shows nearly than 94% of Wyoming at Abnormally Dry through Exceptional Drought.
For additional regional updates, see the Drought Conditions links at Riverton (WY) National Weather Service.
The Riverton (WY) office of the National Weather Service produces Fire Weather Impacts from Drought, examining drought-related impacts on fire conditions. On the national-scale, the 1-week change in Soil Moisture Percentiles indicates the impact of late August precipitation in the TIDC area.
The image below offers an overview of the interactive Departure from Average Greenness Map. Select the TIDC area for a detailed view of drought-impacted fuels as the fire season progresses.
The national Departure from Average Greenness map also indicates the regional impact of drougth and local impact of summer moisture.
Long Range Outlook
This 30-90 Day Long Range Outlook calls for above normal temperatures and equal chances of below-normal, normal, and above-normal precipitation for September. Source: Fire Weather Pages, Long Range Outlook.